chip -Germany wants to run the whole "scheebang".
Germany in the European country the most dependent of impex with the US. If memory serves, 15% of their GDP against single digits for Eurozone (about the sane as US impex with Europe: not important, most trades are made locally in both zones).
Germany faces a huge deficit with the East-West reunification: Germans are complaining about their loved strong DEM disappearing. They just forget that the Eurozone was the only way for them to pay for the reunification.
Dollar against the Euro: long way to go. Don't forget the strenght of the Reagan US Dollar, back in 1982.
I also remember the weakness of the same Dollar back in the 70ies.
Also wait for the hard currency to be available (Jan 01, 2002). Strenght of a reference currency is measured at the volume of matrasses they fill. And I specially am thinking of the underground economy. In how far will the US be replaced by Euro's.... will only be known current 2002.
Meanwhile, the ever newly printed US Dollars that come from the presses still flow the black side, some of them laudred (at the cost of a huge discount). Helps to keep inflation low. What about 2002?
German domination?
Current rules in the Commission (Europe's aka secretaries of state, or ministers): every country, large or small, is attributed one commissioner. Every country fights to get the man in the place that rewards the most. As a result, evrey department of state is managed by a nationally minded person.
This is going to change. Tendency is to have a president of the commission democratically elected, also reduce the number of commissioners (as more countries will join the union sooner or later). Takes some time to change that "Big Thing" (as De Gaulle said) into a democraticly elected system ala US.
Once elected, there will be no nationality problem left, as for the US gov., GW is not a Texan President, he is the President of all the US citizens. This will also happen in Europe.
Back to the Euro/USD parity is the least of our concern here.
Soros has show how easy it is to take a currency down.
Central banks interventions are to be excluded also: ECB has been pressured some months ago: pure loss of money. It is easier, with an extra push, to have a train accelerate, than to stop it and have it change direction. Tuition paid for already.
As I said, way to go the the Reagan exchange rate, and the least of our problems. Too bad for the Germans, but they still don't rule Europe and what matters is that we keep price stability in our own economical zone.
And I fully agree with the ECB position.
Next country to get the rolling presidency of Europe will be Belgium (championof the "little" states interests). Maybe hoping too much, too fast, but they have some radical (needed) new proposals in their map. Will be very constructive.
Wait and see, some changes in less than half a year ahead.
My $0.02. |
