Hey, Larry. I thought you didn't predict the Naz? <g>
You may very well be right about the bottom being in, but I'm curious how the current book to bill supported that. Back in 1998, the Naz hit bottom in October, but the Book to Bill had a double bottom in August and September, with October showing a substantial uptick. Using that as a comparison, why did the Naz bottom this time in the month of the lowest ratio as opposed to 2 months after it?
Also, and maybe this was the same in 1998, but while the b2b ratio increased, both sales and bookings decreased in May, meaning that price to sales ratios of the semi-equip makers probably just got higher (and look to get higher still, as the SEMI PR made it clear that there's no immediate turnaround here).
Frankly, I hope you're right about the bottom being in. And the increase in the book to bill may show a stabilization in the business. Short term, maybe it all depends on how the analysts spin the report tomorrow morning? It's possible that the book to bill really won't get worse. . . but the numbers underlying it might. Is that bullish or bearish? I really don't know.
the freep |
