Stockmarket Cycles update for Thursday, June 21st.
excerpts...
Today's market action makes it appear as if we have seen some kind of market bottom. The market is not yet out of the woods, however. Over the past few days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has found support at both its 200 day and one-year (253 day) moving averages. Today, the 200 day MA closed around 10,621 while the one year MA closed around 10,660. On the other hand, the two-year (506 day) moving average of the Dow, which we have shown you several times over the past few years as the basis for 17.5% channel lines, closed today at 10,731. The Dow has now closed below that moving average for six consecutive days, although since it has fallen below the moving average, each day's high on the Dow has moved up to test the moving average. In other words, even though the moving average has been penetrated, the Dow has not reacted to the downside since the first close beneath the moving average occurred a week ago. Based on these longer-term moving averages, the Dow remains in critical territory. A decisive close back above the 10,731 level would be a bullish sign. On the other hand, more than one or two closes beneath the 10,600 level would be a bearish sign short term.
As we have emphasized over the past several days, the Trading Index moving averages, especially the Open 10 TRIN, are showing historically oversold levels, levels that have been associated with important bottoms in the past. Today, the simple 10 day moving average of TRIN closed at 1.38, the Open 10 at 1.24, and the New 10 at 1.02. Today's McClellan oscillator improved further to a reading of -55.0.
As far as the short-term price projections are concerned, we have no decisive upside projections as yet. Until we begin to get upside projections with confidence, our bullishness will be somewhat restrained. Remember, however, we still have substantially higher nominal 20 week projections.
Stock-index futures traders -place your stops on our September S&P long positions at 1,232.70.
There are no new projections for the XAU or the bonds, but bonds are very close to giving a nominal 20 week upside projection to above 105. That has not occurred as yet.
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