Kevin,
Any fool knows reputations can be ruined with just a few major mistakes. The mistake Asensio is making with REFR is not just one bad call. The very nature of these kinds of stock is that they can look far from making a breakthrough and suddenly it works in a moment of insight or pure chance. You can find experts to tell you the technology is 10 years away and that they will run out of cash in three months. Then, they get a reprieve when a new investor gives them cash because of the breakthrough. It would be hard for Asensio to win every time, or for anyone.
It is the stubborn attitude he portrays and not letting go despite rumblings that should have warned him and not taking his losses and moving on to another better pick. It is putting out press releases full of obvious garbage. Be honest. You have studied his other shorts. DO you think he did not have better reasons and accusations in these other cases. You know. Statements like they are not earning enough to even pay the interest on their debts, or accounting irregularities. For me, having a deep knowledge of REFR, none of his arguments carries any weight.
So, when I mention reputation, it is more than if he made a bad pick on REFR. I suggest he also used bad judgement and tactics. If I am right, and if journalists print the story as I describe it, it would make him look bad.
I do not believe your statement that Asensio finds great plays and shorts them down to zero. That is his public bargaining tactic. I doubt he tells people much about exactly when he shorts and covers. Some shorts are content to find a bad stock. He TALKS them down in ways many other shorts do not. I se no magical reason to leave his cash partially tied up to try to wait for a bankruptcy rather than covering at a dollar and finding another stock. Many people prefer a 90% profit in weeks to a 99% profit in months or years, especially if they can find a new victim immediately.
Clearly, you have studied him in depth and admire him. I don't admire him, but I can respect part of what he does. My point is not to study him and get details of every trade he has made. It is that he has lost before and it is idiotic to assume he can not be wrong about REFR. Shorting can be risky. Nobody bats 1,000. Since you claim you are not shorting REFR due to cash flow issues, it remains amazing why this is so important to you. I am up front and I bet you are a liar, just from the nature of these exchanges. Sadly for you, you have a delusion that you are in my class and can hold your own. You are entitled to that opinion and I to mine.
What kind of crap is it to say Asensio always plays to win? Win what? Why insult him? He does not play to win at all costs. He plays to make money. Read his book and tell me where it says he will not close out a trade if it is going against him? You win by preserving as much capital as you can. My theory is he is fighting to be able to LOSE LESS on REFR than he would if he just covered and drove up the price. He is making a calculated bet that he can stall and either some catastrophe will happen to help him out or he can get others, like you, to partially bail him out. He is using his bag of tricks, such as three mentions so far by Adam Lashinsky. His gamble may not be working since time is against him as licensees make progress and report it.
I have more respect for him, apparently, than you do. I still think his tactics are designed to minimize his losses, even if they may not end up working.
If I am right, he may not even have his own money on the line and may be getting paid nicely by clients to try to save them some money. You suggest he would not do that? Why? Yes, he is risking some aspects of his reputation but I bet he thinks differently about that. Chances are he plans on downplaying any problems and doing well on some other short and he knows people like you will admire him for his last big coup anyway.
You give away your bias by suggesting that REFR is pulling a fast one. Make up your mind. I thought 35 years was too slow. I say Asensio is pulling lots of fast ones. That is my bias. Of course, I know about this company which is not a fraud and you know about Asensio who may be right 80% of the time. I say my 100% (or maybe just 98% LOL) trumps yours.
As for the bet, I was trying to make a reefer/coke joke. The cost of a case of soda or a hundred dollar bill is irrelevant to me. I deal in larger sums. I am not a gambler. I will gladly offer you the soda if you are right without asking anything in return.
What I am interested in is not the deal you want to make with Nancy. I am thinking of the question of whether Asensio or REFR wins this tug of war. That may be decided much sooner. We get regular reports of the short position. If it is clear that the shorts end up covering over some average dollar amount, such as $20 or $25, we can assume the shorts lost. If they get the price below $20, and cover, it may be a draw or a win, depending how low it goes.
If my intuition here is correct, we may well have a squeeze and the short position will drastically decline at that point. That would be a clear win for me.
This could be resolved much sooner than your wager with Nancy. LOL!
Have a good night. I know I will. |
