Recap:
In the up scenario we are in a wave C up. Within that we would be in a wave 1.
Within this 1, we are probably still in the powerful 3. This in itself is enough for me to take moderate risk for long scalps (the potential reward is so high).
My down scenario is non-Elliott and goes like this:
Everybody in the world is looking up, the backdrop and sentiment sucks, so you go long for anything other than a scalp at your peril.
The waves may look like they are pointing up, but it's only one leg of a the 4-legged foundation you build a good position on:
1) TA
2) Elliott
3) Sentiment
4) Signs of fundamentals turning the corner
Right now, we have a few barely decent TA signs, we have an up scenario that is still valid, but #3 and #4 tell us to be careful, particularly #3.
I continue to think that we did not have enough of a washout on the way down, so it'll make me cautious, perhaps overly cautious. I "feel" like there is the possibility to surprise us to the down side. It won't prevent me from going long, hell, that's how I made 75% of my money this week, but it'll keep me from initiated even s-t positions. Hell, look at non-tech this morning: that thing is on the edge of puking-up it's up scenario!
In scalp mode -- Allan. |
