George, i think you're right to be worried about this. one needs to look at the TICK readings accompanying this high TRIN too. we've had days with extremely high positive ticks lately...combined with a high TRIN, this is a sign that the big money is distributing to the small traders. and sure enough, whatever trader's chat sites one visits, everybody's long, BECAUSE of the high TRIN. besides, if one completely disregards the TRIN, and looks at price charts only, they sure show a weak market...the rallies are shallow, and given back immediately...one wonders why everybody's so sanguine? Crawford, Hays, Drakulich, even PRECHTER , all are looking UP, and so are presumably their subscribers.
i was looking for a short term rally myself here, but my doubts sure are growing...it's really hard to find anybody who's bearish, in spite of the obvious total collapse in the tech sector's revenues and earnings (lately this has spread to other sectors too) and the constant barrage of economic news showing a continued drastic weakening of the macro environment. when this type of news background is combined with deep pessimism among market participants, one can normally assume that a bottom must be near. but that is simply NOT the case. |
