John,
Do you have any link to the possibility that domestic NG production will peak in 20 years. Reading Simmons's speeches has cast doubt in my mind whether this is so.
Here is a piece from April 2000 issue, from the link
eandpnet.com
"Business is improving on the shelf," said Jon Marshall, executive vice president and chief operating officer at Global Marine. "Drilling activity has been driven by the strength of the gas market, which is increasingly being driven by depletion rates." Annual production decline rates average 20% to 30%, but first-year decline rates can reach as high as 50%. With horizontal wells and completion technologies that enable rapid draw-down, producers have to run their exploration efforts at full speed just to keep even, much less increase production volumes to keep up with growing demand."
I seem to recall someone posting a study from Texas A&M saying that the US has already peaked, but there is still plenty of gas in Scotia, McKenzie delta and Alaska, where there is no pipe yet.
best, Seppo |
