Barton Biggs, Morgan Stanley: BR, APC, BMY, ABT, AHP, SLB,NVS
Barton Biggs presents his outlook for the market in Barron's Roundtable:
Market:
-Expects significant cutback on spending by the American consumer in the second half of 2001
-This "collapse" of the consumer could cause another down-tick in the economy
-Foresees a U or L-shaped recovery rather than a V-shaped recovery
-Anticipates another few quarters of "very low nominal GDP growth", which will severly impact profits of old economy companies
-S&P could fall to 1000 or 900; Nasdaq to see new lows due to continuing tech "carnage"
-Thinks it will take a year for "real recovery" to begin
-Predicts a "severe cyclical bear market" rather than a "secular bear market"
-Neutral on Japan; likes some sectors in Europe
Sector reports:
-Underweight equities; overweight bonds
-Within equities, he favors drugs, utilities, consumer-product companies, and energy, particularly natural gas
-Negative on financials
-Too much "carnage" in tech land
Stock picks:
BR: holds largest reserves in the natural gas area; worth in the mid-50s
APC: adding to its reserves
SLB: "true growth company" in oil services
BMY
ABT
AHP
NVS |
