Demand for our products overseas is weak, in part because of the strong dollar. This is an area that the Fed and Treasury likely will examine as lower rates alone have little short-term effect on our economy.
On home sales: From what I hear on these threads, yep, things are slow in California, but the Dallas/Fort Worth, Minneapolis and Chicago areas seem to be doing quite well. So the bursting of the tech bubble is most pronounced regionally, not so much nationally.
On federal tax refunds: It's mostly symbolic. The amount Gov. Gray Davis is seeking for Californians in overcharges by power producers dwarfs the amount of the federal tax cut.
And gasoline prices, down 40 cents a gallon over the last few weeks, is more stimulative to the economy than any of the above, in my opinion.
On natural gas: Industry executives say they prefer to keep natural gas prices competitive rather than lose customers to other forms of energy. Makes sense, doesn't it?
On lumber: Hurricane season is approaching.
On capex spending: When capex spending was running at 20 percent year-over-year growth, it was obviously unsustainable. Now, with capex in the low single digits, or near zero in some areas, it seems to me that the wise thing to do, as an investor, would be look for stocks that will benefit as capex spending returns to a more normal level.
None of know when that will happen, we just know that it will.
Just as we knew oil wouldn't stay at $35 a barrel (no drilling in Alaska required, either.)
All of the above is only my opinion. All the usual disclaimers apply.
PB |
