Have you not considered the "mere snapback" (off breakdown from uptrend-line/neckline of "continuation head and shoulders") scenario? Numerous leading tech stocks show the same or similar patterns.
Even a breakout from the falling wedge, unless it were to take place very soon, would not imply more than a termination near the broken trendline/upsloping neckline (bottom of trading channel on your 130-min chart). Accomplishing more than a snapback would also require re-mounting the breakdown gap that appears clearly on your 130-min chart.
Pending further developments, I believe that the dominant features on the daily COMPX chart remain 1) the break in the primary uptrend, 2) the subsequent break in the above-mentioned neckline, and 3) the achievement of a new low, confirming a downtrend from the rally high.
I suspect that traders and investors have been reluctant to capitulate (or fully withdraw support) ahead of the Fed, and, though I never consider any too widely anticipated turn of events a certainty, I do think that the probability remains of a breakdown first to 1941, next to the high 1800s (perhaps 1868 or so), perhaps to Zeev's 1850, eventually to a true re-test of the April low. |
