So instead of bashing Docomo and wcdma, we should be cheering for their success.
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First, I think objectivity is most preferable.
And SK's recent decisions, in my view, speak volumes regarding NTT's wCDMA network's prospects in the short and mid term.
Second, I don't think we should be "cheering" for wCDMA's success. At all.
No doubt, Europe will maintain a death grip on UMTS prospects, to their imminent detriment. But Europe, the only region where wCDMA/UMTS is truly entrenched, is not the focus. And it's becoming less and less important what happens on Europe's shores.
The prize is elsewhere. The prize is everywhere other than Europe. And Q's prospects only improve in these regions when wCDMA/UMTS falters.
And wCDMA/UMTS success will not speed the construction of full-scale networks. wCDMA/UMTS success will only reinforce and confirm the viability of 3GSM evolution. Short and mid-term plans for UMTS networks are small scale, selected applications - and as much for bragging rights as function. 3GSM plans first include selected GPRS coverage for business data needs. Then plans call for widespread GPRS, including services targeted at consumers. Then for some there is EDGE for higher data rates - in targeted regions, as needed. (And NOK is pushing this much harder now for all regions.) Then there is small scale UMTS in selected regions for business. Then finally there is growing UMTS networks for consumers - in selected markets - as required....
Successful, bug-free wCDMA/UMTS technology tomorrow will not alter this map - only assist in confirming its viability - and strengthen the confidence of carriers wed to the evolution. (Of course, GPRS is throwing a wrench into the works now as well, compelling NOK to pull HSCSD out of bowels of its closet.)
But there is Asia (aside from NTT), Latin America, and India to win, and the US to secure.
To suggest that it's preferable to have wCDMA functioning sooner, and gleaning minimal revenues from royalties and ASICS until 2005 or so, when UMTS might really kick in --- to seizing the opportunity to exploit continued 3GSM and wCDMA/UMTS failures... to bend established perceptions of standard dominance... and win converts to cdma2000 evolution in developing countries is, to me, a curious perspective.
Opportunities are everywhere - - in China for 2.5 and 3G - with TDMA carriers in LA - with Cingular in the US - perhaps even with desperate European carriers ---
There is a credible prospect that NTT's chronic problems will pull them toward additional Q IP and synchronicity.
Due to Europe's growing discomfort, Q may well seize the prospect of influencing and infiltrating 3GPP standards in ways not recently perceived possible - as 3GPP carriers push the standard toward functionality......
To "cheer" for wCDMA/UMTS success at this point in time, as the tide turns in Q's favor, is analogous to hoping NextWave settles with the FCC on Monday for a quick billion. |
