re: Grahame Lynch on CDG's 10th and a Perry La Forge Interview
Another vintage piece showing the softer side of Grahame Lynch & Perry La Forge - just to show Grahame isn't ALL one sided.
As CDMA Turns 10, CDMA Development Group Executive Director Perry La Forge Reflects on Success, Failure and the Road Ahead.
Grahame did a somewhat kinder celebration of CDG's 10th anniversary than Wireless Week who brought up CDG's reputation to "over promise and under deliver".
>>Fighting the CDMAcause, v.2001
Grahame Lynch
Americas Network
December 1, 2000
The next twelve months will see a major effort by CDMA vendors to influence the third generation path for cdmaOne operators. Central to this contest is the CDMA Development Group, which is driving the development of the so-called IXEV standard for 3G networks. One goal - to convince TDMA and GSM operators to marry the new 3G CDMA interface to their existing IS-41 or GSM MAP networks. But first the CDG has to resist the European W-CDMA push and crack the elusive China market. In this interview with group editorial director Grahame Lynch, the executive director of the Orange County, CA-based CDMA Development Group, Perry La Forge, outlines the issues.
"I don’t have any delusions that deployment will happen fast in Europe."
GL: Currently, the major CDMA vendors are coming out with proprietary 3G proposals for cdmaOne networks. What is the process for harmonizing these into one standard?
PL: Part of what we do is to work from a requirement side and then provide input into the processes that actually define a standard. We used that for 1X and 1XEV phase one. Right now, 1XEV phase one is being balloted. The next step is 1XEV phase two. Just see them as progressive releases. We’ve put a timeline on October 2001 for 1XEV phase two, but some of the manufacturers are going to want to better it.
GL: A number of vendors say they can push the 1XEV phase two speeds beyond five megabits per second, which is way beyond what anyone specified. Where will it end?
PL: Well, we have a pretty strong basis now and the goal is to leverage off that basis. I think you’ll see greater things but at some point it will flatten out. There will be new technologies that improve it. We’ll have enough bandwidth in terms of the radio air interface that we’ll start to focus a bit more on the user interface, simplified interaction with the phone, and maybe concentrating a bit more on HTML and leveraging the Internet. There’ll be less focus on the radio interface.
GL: What about the idea that everything will work on an IP platform?
That will be a big deal. You’ll see a lot more talk about the core network and the move toward IP. I don’t think many people have that resolved yet. They don’t know how to bill for packet. They don’t know how to manage packet. So it’s going to take some time.
There’s been some good news for CDMA deployments in China in the past few weeks, but there’s been less reporting on the deployment announcements in Vietnam and Thailand. Do you see these breakthroughs as a good sign for CDMA in other mid-size developing economies?
We’ve always done pretty well in Southeast Asia and we’ve done very well in the whole Asia Pacific area, including Australia and New Zealand. In many of these countries, deployment has been more of a financial issue than a technology issue. You should see some continuing progress there.
GL: In China, Unicom has said they will deploy CDMA but they have yet to issue RFPs.
PL: "Relatively speaking, you’d be surprised at what little government help we had."
They’re about ready to launch RFPs. There’s been some preliminary RFPs, so they’ve got something to work off. There was a delay, and I think that’s been resolved.
GL: What do you think of the current talk about TD-SCDMA and the potential for China to develop its own standard? Will that impact on the deployment of cdmaOne and CDMA2000?
PL: I don’t think so. We’ve been working on them with different things and I don’t think it’s in a position to delay us. China Unicom is pretty bullish on moving forward and they have wanted to launch for some time. They’ve now picked up the four Great Wall networks and they’ve got something to build out. Will TD-SCDMA have an influence in the future? Time will tell.
GL: With the launch of CDMA IS95-B in South Korea, what’s been the early feedback in terms of technical performance?
PL: To be honest, I haven’t really followed IS95-B that closely. We are more focused on 1X. 95-B is a transition step for some folks. The feedback has been pretty good in terms of talking to my Korean colleagues. I was personally never a big proponent of 95-B in that it took a long time to get through the standards processes and it was so close on the heels of 1XRTT that it didn’t make sense.
For some people it did make sense because they were being pushed for data services.
GL: One of the big selling points for CDMA 1X is that you can put it on the GSM MAP, which creates new potential markets. Are you aware of any interest in this from Europe or Asia?
PL: There is interest. I’m not naïve in the sense that I have any delusions that it will happen fast in Europe. There’s a real strong emphasis there for W-CDMA over the new spectrum. Whether you believe me or not, W-CDMA was almost set up as a policy initiative. There is still a lagging feeling that this is something that needed to be done. As time goes on and people get settled with spectrum and understand the technologies, there will be some opportunities for us. NMT-450 could move that forward [to CDMA]. That’s a real opportunity, and there are some small operators who would like to that, but again, there is resistance at various levels to that happening. Our focus is full-speed ahead in areas where we have access. We’ve taken that approach with TDMA operators. A good example is Bellsouth [which operates TDMA in the US]. They’re using CDMA in Latin America. We’re not the best geo-political organization in the world, but as things shake out we’ll look for opportunities.
GL: Much of the current industry focus seems to be on high-speed data, but many CDMA operators such as Leap Wireless are focusing on voice. CDMA has also been very popular for WiLL applications. What’s the future there?
PL: Wireless local loop hasn’t taken off as fast as I thought it would, and that’s mainly because it’s a very complex area in terms of regulatory reforms. I do maintain that it’s a big opportunity in places like Latin America and India. It’s very politically charged, because if you’re using a mobile technology in a fixed environment, the fixed people wonder if they can compete. There’s a conflict. It will roll out but it won’t be a big driver in terms of numbers. But it will grow, especially as you see things like Bluetooth, where people may want to connect in a wide area network.
GL: In the last couple of years the CDMA cause has been extended a helping hand from the US government. With the election, how will that change?
PL: I claim we had very little of a helping hand.
You didn’t get help in Asia?
Hey what? Relatively speaking, you’d be surprised at what little help we had. I know it’s popular opinion to think that we’ve had this huge administration support in Europe, but we have an issue that whenever they do anything for CDMA, you’ve got TDMA right on our tails. In Asia we had a little bit of help, particularly in China. That’s been thwarted by the fact that they can’t come out behind a particular technology because it would disadvantage another technology such as TDMA. One thing we haven’t done well is enlisting the support of governments. On the European side, there were some letters written with [US Secretary of State] Madeline Albright, but nothing really happened.
GL: With a new set of faces in the administration, might things change?
PL: I doubt it. It’s a very sticky geo-political issue. There might be some support, but by and large, there is a view in support of a free market. I just wish Europe would have a free market. It’s a difference of policies and I’m fine with that as long as everyone recognizes it. It’s a fundamental difference of views. <<
- Eric - |
