MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 672.04

-1.7%

Nov 13 4:00 PM EST

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To: American Spirit who wrote (79197)	6/25/2001 9:02:47 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) of 99985

My formula for playing this week and next 3 weeks is quite simple. Watching for capitulation by big funds. We are ending the quarter and that mean window dressing and the beaten up names become good buys. I look at the tech names that declined from Jan to March 30 quarter end. Then I look at the names that declined from April 1 to now. If a stock fits both those categories and is hitting lows for the year or longer, I am interested in buying those tech names for a significant bounce. 25% to 75%, depending upon the price. The selling is going to dry up after quarter end. The time to buy is now and rest of this week (and last week)...the earlier the better. In addition, I am also looking at other ones that simply declined big from April 1 to Now. No strict criterea..just depends upon the stock. Lots of stocks like GLW, GX, EMC and many others. The bigger the declines, the greater the chances that the mutual fund holders have capitulated. For funds, it just may be a small position but getting it off their books may provide lots of supplies....these fund have no reason to wait until quarter end (again due to materiality). So far I have about 15 names. Software, storage, and some networker names. Looking at a couple of non-tech names also but I like sectors that have high short interest, like technology....because when you combine that with window dressing by funds...you get a good recipe for a rebound. Anyone also notice that no one seems to be predicting much of a stock market recovery....now that is good news.<g>

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