Hi Mike: Food for thought
>>he advised his clients to move some of their holdings from high-tech to bonds, "old economy" blue-chip stocks, utiliy stocks, and the like. Not missing a beat, I responded, "In other words, you advised your clients to move their investments from companies that had sustainable, competitive advanatages to those that don't, right?" <<
So, in hindsight, his advice (if taken) would have been permitting you to scoop up many more of these wonderfully sustainably competitively advantaged companies.
Of course there were other folks with similar advice at earlier and later times. Who would have been more or less correct.
Clearly then it is NOT a matter of whether or not the advice is never good. You have provided an example. We do not need more than one to prove the contrapositive.
It IS a matter of difficulty differentiating good advice from bad advice. N'est pas?
Now, there are those who say this differentiation is difficult, fraught with danger and not for those of the faint of heart or nimble of mind.
True. I am amongst those with this opinion.
Indeed, the average Joe can't reliably get this right.
Also, I think this is true.
However, the average Joe risks grave personal injury if they practice rocket science too. Which does not invalidate Rocket Science. And if you, not being a rocket scientist, were to try to loudly assert its dangerous foolishness as a universal truth... Well, then I imagine a throng of animated Rocket Scientists would want to shake pointy things in your direction.
The point here is that just because you and others like you can't wrap your neurons around something DOES NOT mean that nobody can.
I have no difficulty accepting the fact that you do not feel equipped to attempt "Market Timing", and that you have made a decision to stick doggedly with what you know. But that does not invalidate the results of those who are, or diminish the advantages that obviously could be available if such a method could be found.
I use the word "obviously" purely in the context of the last fifteen or so months.
John. |
