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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting

QCOM 176.09

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To: foundation who wrote (12041)	6/25/2001 12:19:28 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (2) of 196972

I do hope you are correct on these points. We're very early in this game. And with recent trends regarding wCDMA/UMTS and cdma2000 performance, it's getting earlier in the game every day. I think the next 9 months will signal how the pendulum swings. With GPRS. With NTT - and with wCDMA/UMTS in general. With cdma2000 1x and 1xevdo networks. And it may turn out that TDMA carriers that have adopted 3GSM evolution are future 1xMAP customers.... as GPRS fails to perform... if wCDMA/UMTS problems are indeed chronic... Nokia is slated to ship GPRS phones late Fall/Winter. If it stumbles, again, then I will start to be a little more optimistic. The GPRS front has been strangely silent recently. What do you think of Dennis' point that UMTS is definitely not a good thing for Q because of its probable implementation in isolated urban areas? Using GSM and GPRS at cheaper rates than UMTS in that context may wreak havoc with GSM carriers' bottom line because of the need to pay for the spectrum. We've seen moves to cut costs already by infra sharing as well as countermoves by better-financed Vodafone, who will sue if this happens. However, the Balkanization of UMTS is definitely not good for Q if there is no corresponding move to replace it with CDMA2000. You are correct, the next 9 months are going to be very interesting. Europe certainly appears to be in the pickle barrel. Huge spectrum costs and an uncertain technology panorama would make me very nervous if I were a carrier counting his pfennigs. I highly commend Eric L.'s discussion of Q's European marketing and PR efforts at the Nokia thread. He thinks that Dr. J. blew it with the FT interview after a successful presentation at Cannes. I don't necessarily agree. Even if true, people forget and necessity compels. Time, need and money heal all wounds and prevail over foolish pride.

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