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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Stock Farmer who wrote (43880)6/25/2001 3:09:52 PM
From: EnricoPalazzo  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
I have no difficulty accepting the fact that you do not feel equipped to attempt "Market Timing", and that you have made a decision to stick doggedly with what you know. But that does not invalidate the results of those who are, or diminish the advantages that obviously could be available if such a method could be found.

It's good to know that you are able to accept the weaknesses of others, John.

Re: "diminish the advantages that obviously could be available if such a method could be found": Yes, of course there are tremendous advantages that could be available if such a method could be found. I'm just rather skeptical that such a method has been found (I'm also skeptical that such a method could be found, but somewhat less so).

I have seen no evidence of the wisdom of "market timing" over the long term. I can think of many investors who have outperformed the market over the long term by buying great companies at reasonable valuations (without consideration of the market's valuation, or the near-term future of the stocks).

I certainly congratulate you on your fortune over the past 15 months. But that one data point doesn't exactly establish the sustainable competitive advantage that a market timer has over the rest of us.
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