In which case only if you fail will you ever be equipped to attempt "Market Timing". Kind of pointless if you ask me, that you have to fail in order to succeed, or worse, that in succeeding you might fail.
Confucious say: "whaaaa?" Does that have something to do with "the amazon of yesterday's tomorrow"? (n.b.--that was a self-deprecating joke).
Anyway, I apologize for the harshness of my tone. As to the disagreement:
It was my understanding that you were suggesting selling in early 2000 because the market was overvalued, and ripe for a fall. I disagree with that method of selecting buy/sell points (I'm not suggesting that the method can't work, just that I've [still] seen no evidence that it can). You seem to be implying that I've misunderstood your assertion--if so, I apologize.
It now sounds as if you're saying that we shouldn't ignore valuation, and that we should only buy companies that have reasonable valuations (defined, e.g., by a conservative DCF, or other methods the investor prefers). If that's the case, then I agree.
I'm not totally convinced that those rules have been widely violated around here, though. As much as I make fun of myself for buying RMBS and NTAP at 40, I do think that those both represented reasonable valuations for those companies. |
