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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (79210)	6/25/2001 6:42:29 PM
From: David Howe	Read Replies (2) of 99985

My 2 cents worth << You had the same argument some 200 to 300 naz points above where we are, but the market turned down. >> I've been following NewVision's calls and he's been rather accurate. He was bullish from Nasdaq 1650 to 2300. He went to bearish as the market failed to rally beyond 2300 and started to pull back. Now, with the Nasdaq showing good relative strength, and climbing back above 2000, he's back to being bullish. His main point is that the earnings warnings are mostly behind us. I tend to agree with his call at this time. << unlike the NYSE A/D ratio that made a slight recovery high on the last rally, the NAZ A/D ratio is still in a clear decline. If at all, you could make a case for the DOW to bump up from an oversold condition, but the overvalued NAZ? >> I'd agree that many if not most of the Nasdaq stocks are overvalued. Some, quite a bit still. But, some if not most of the large cap Nasdaq companies (ie. MSFT) are not overvalued, IMO. This could be why there is continued decline in the A/D ratio, yet the index as a whole continues higher. JMO, Dave

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