Skino- It seems some sentiment/technical indicators are decidedly mixed here...
- Vix/VIN and p/c seem to support the idea of a good bit of complacency here...
However, Rydex looks bullish to me....bordering greatly bullish if we get another good whoosh down (and more money piling into cash, out of long funds, into short funds)..
- H&S breakdowns, lots of lower highs, greater volume down than up lately, and incomplete EWave pattern (lack of 5th down), etc. mean UGLY and likely more down...
However, as you point out, some bullish wedges now percolating....also (my comment) weekly stochastics now back to mid-range (from way overbought 3/4 weeks ago...but still with downside room possible), and dailies are turning up from low levels here (and look like they support good up for a week or two....)
- liquidity-wise, IPO market attempting a comeback, and should provide a continuing over-supply of issues here....also, summer doledrums, historic bad time for techs..
However, Fed continues record daily repos, etc. pumps (albeit w/poor results so far), end of quarter (buying?) coming up, and we have had some mild strength into mid-July (followed by a tank) in a few recent years...
So, I am decidely torn here....would like to see a powerful break one way or the other over the next couple weeks to exhaust some of the countervailing conditions....so that we can set-up a nice safe trade in the OPPOSITE direction POST BREAK(OUT) or (DOWN), whatever the case may be <G>.. |
