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Yugoslavia Steers Milosevic to Court and Itself
Toward Reconstruction
25 June 2001
Analysis
The Yugoslav government approved a decree June 23
allowing Yugoslav citizens accused of war crimes, such as
former President Slobodan Milosevic, to be extradited to
stand trial before the international tribunal in the Hague.
Many Western governments - particularly the United States - link desperately
needed aid to cooperation with the tribunal. Sensing American stubbornness,
many prominent Yugoslavs who originally opposed such extraditions, including
President Vojislav Kostunica, have recently changed their tune.
The ruling Democratic Opposition of Serbia, after a number of wranglings with
coalition partner the Montenegrin Socialist People's Party, withdrew the
legislation and instead passed it as an executive decree July 23. The decree
orders cooperation with the International Criminal Tribinual for the former
Yugoslavia.
The decree partially fulfills what was likely a clandestine deal struck between
Washington and Belgrade months ago that will lead to Milosevic's surrender and
Yugoslavia's reconstruction. Milosevic could be in The Hague by the end of July.
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Washington seems to be upholding its end of the bargain. The International
Monetary Fund awarded Yugoslavia $249 million June 11 despite its longstanding
refusal to loan Belgrade anything without first a deal on debt forgiveness from both
the London Club of private investors and the Paris Club of sovereign creditors. The
standby loan indicates the IMF has received assurances that a debt write-off for
most of Belgrade's $12 billion debt is imminent.
That could not happen unless the most powerful
member for both Clubs and the IMF - the United
States - had already signed off on the deal. Far from
being obstructionist, the United States has most
likely signaled loan approval for Belgrade in several international power centers.
That places the ball in Belgrade's court.
The Yugoslavs seem to be sticking to their end of the bargain. On June 23 the
Serbian prime minister, Zoran Djinjic, clearly stated Milosevic would be shipped to
the Hague sometime in the next 15 to 20 days, the range of time he expected the
process to take to clear the Yugoslav legal system. That added a touch of finality
to increasingly bold statements about Milosevic's future from Yugoslav officials
including Serbia's justice and interior ministers as well as Kostunica himself.
American approval is essential for Yugoslavia. Without American participation and
debt write-off, Belgrade will remain unable to raise approximately $1 billion it
needs to restore the country to a semblance of normality before winter. Without
visible reconstruction, Yugoslavs punished by a decade of sanctions and war
could turn against their new government. Belgrade hopes to raise all of this
money at the June 29 donors' conference in Brussels. The United States
repeatedly has said that without an extradition deal involving Milosevic, it would
not attend. Canada and Japan are expected to follow Washington's lead.
But Belgrade apparently cut a deal for Milosevic's
extradition months ago to ensure the needed financial
aid. It is only now that the drama is being played out, as
Yugoslavs put the necessary legal infrastructure in
place. Once that happens, likely by the end of June, the United States will make
its private help public - complete with fast-tracked aid.
All that remains is an extradition order out of Belgrade. If it occurs as expected,
the Americans and their Canadian and Japanese allies should arrive in Brussels
on Friday with cash in hand. If not, the Yugoslav leadership will face not only
American stonewalling for a broken deal but also popular outrage as the
government faces another winter without heat, light or a hope for survival. |
