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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: Henry Volquardsen who started this subject6/26/2001 7:14:46 AM
From: friverola   of 3536
 
Bank economists say US to "narrowly escape" recession in 2001 (Bridge News)
Tuesday June 26, 2.001. 8.00AM GMT.
http://www..bridge.com

Although the U.S. economy will continue to remain soft until the end of the year, it is likely to avert a downright recession, economists of the American Bankers Association said Monday. In their twice-yearly report, the ABA's Economic Advisory Committee concluded that tax cuts and rebates, coupled with aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve since the beginning of the year should bolster growth by 2002.

"The nation will narrowly escape a recession for the remainder of this year and resume a faster pace of growth next year," concluded the nine-member committee of economists from private banks.

As such, the group anticipates real gross domestic product growth at an annual rate of 1.8% by the end of 2001, rising to 3.3% the following year. Still, the economists anticipate the Fed drawing closer to the end of its easing cycle as the overall economy picks up. Reduced borrowing costs as a result of lower interest rates will continue to push up demand, but the group cautioned that "excessive monetary stimulation can trigger inflation."

The committee said it expected up to two quarter-point cuts in the fed funds rate before the end of the year, projecting the rate at 3.75% from the current 4.00% by the third quarter. But the economists project the rate to go back to 4.00% by the second quarter of next year, rising to 4.25% by the end of 2002.

Full Text, fxstreet.com
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