<< I'm higher right now and you are lower..... what's holding your odds down? >>
Joe, I could be wrong.
But the drop in IPM's stock price from $14.25 to $5.37 has done extreme damage to its the technical health and market sentiment. The current rally went to $8 but remain weak. The behavior of the stock since March is bearish not bullish. In that sense, the recent rally looks more like a bear market rally.
Altough IPM never promise to achieve specifics things at specific times, they (and their strongest supporters) have in February and March indicated that the months of April and May would see the big news. Of course, the news didn't come (at least the one we were expecting)..and that is normal as mining is mining and there are delays. Still the momentum has been going down and this has translated in sales of IPM stocks by many players who were once, more on the side of the strong supporters.
Lately (in May), it was announced by the strongest supporters that the AGM week would be SHOWTIME where all the big news would come out. I doubt it will be the case, simply because mining is mining and there are always delays. As we now know, Lyco is not expected to submit his report before the end of 3Q. BD will likely not be ready as they only started on the bulk sampling a few weeks ago.
Again I can be wrong, but I think that IPM stock can no longer gain major strenght..unless there is a official and unequivocal positive audit from Lyco and BD. Of course the BXM and DELGF sagas are in for something in this new market paradigm. Since this audit is not likely to happen this week, IPM stock is not likely to gain strenght. The lack of such an audit may cause additional weakness..
Add to this the current mood of the precious metal market, and it is hard to see how IPM stock can go up if nothing changes. If I was sure that a positive audit was only a matter of time, I would likely keep my shares and accumulate on weakness.. but I am not sure. And as time erodes without that critical audit, the likelyhood is for IPM stock price to continue to be weak.
IPM has a market cap of C$200M+...this is the kind of market cap you give to producers with at least 1M ounces in reserves or to explorers with 3-4M ounces in reserves. IPM has none of these and most of its value is based on speculation that they will develop such a reserve. The speculative value of a stock is something that can go down very rapidly when events do not take place when they are expected. The more time it will take for the BD's and Lyco's to confirm that the metals at BRX can be recovered economically, the lower the stock will go.
Therefore, I am likely to sell because expectations might not be met this week and the speculative value in IPM stock price is likely to continue to erode. I am also likely to buy much more shares when and if these expectations are met later this year...and hopefully at a lower price.
Let see how the week goes. |
