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Non-Tech : Auric Goldfinger's Short List
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To: Fast Eddie who wrote (7939)6/26/2001 1:22:19 PM
From: mmmary  Read Replies (1) of 19428
 
HDI is a funny stock

It bucks the trends because of the branding of the HD name. You have HD owners owning the stock, and a lot of wanna-be's who can't afford the bikes even. It's the only stock some of these people own. They give gifts to friends of one framed share of the stock. It's insane.

HD is getting ready to come out with a new bike and engine this year. They're also redoing their entry level sportster bike completely. 25% of their sales come from this entry level, drag them in so they'll buy up bike. Good and bad. Good because more people will buy them. Bad because they might not have that instant need to buy up. I really think it is HD marketing that tells everyone that sportster riders are sissies. Good idea too ;-) 2003 is coming up also. These bikes are basically pre-sold ... on paper.

Now the bad news. I still feel they are overpriced. Waiting lists have really shrunk to nothing. Used to be bikes sold for a few thou over msrp. Now certain models sell at msrp or $500 below with no wait. Bikes ordered a year ago arrive at the dealership and the guy either can't afford it or his credit is horrible. I talk to my local dealers here. Same thing happened with pt cruiser market. I'm getting a red limited in a week! No wait, $100 under sticker. I love this economy! But I digress.

I think the cushion/buffer created by the old waiting lists is getting used up pretty fast. It'll be interesting ot see what the next numbers look like. If you remember, q1 retail numbers were down even though the ceo in the webcast said "There is no slowdown!" a few times. Go to any dealer and check out inventory on the floor for proof. 2000 and 2001 bikes on the floor. It really varies by state though because of HD allocation policies. Hot times are spring and summer for retail sales. For HDI mfg it's obviously before those periods.

Also, they are outlaying a bit of capital to expand their plants right now besides mroe money for R&D. They also projected only 11% growth. They always forcast at least double digit as is their policy. This is the lowest you can go double digit wise almost.

Crossing the $50 mark will be tough. I know a lot of people who want out at $50. I think they will get close again then back off. It'll be interesting to see the next set of numbers.
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