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Pastimes : Is a Real Estate Downturn Coming?

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To: Alomex who wrote (39)6/26/2001 3:32:26 PM
From: Alomex   of 91
 
Sillicon Valley:

www0.mercurycenter.com

Home prices fell in May, first time since 1995
Santa Clara County median $473,000

BY SUE MCALLISTER
Mercury News

The median price of homes sold in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties dropped slightly in May, the first time in several years that the prices fell compared to the previous year. The number of homes sold continued a six-month decline -- down 16 percent in Santa Clara County and 14 percent in the Bay Area as a whole.

The median price of an existing, single-family home sold in Santa Clara County fell to $473,000 in May, down 0.2 percent compared to May 2000, according to DataQuick Information Systems. It's the first time since June 1995 that the county's median price has fallen compared to the same month in the previous year. Last month's median price also is a decline of 5.4 percent from April.

Sales have picked up a bit since May, and realty agents say more home buyers are feeling emboldened to make offers -- frequently low-ball offers. They assume that a seller who's been on the market for a few weeks must be desperate for any offer, even a stingy one.

``There are a lot of offers coming in 10 to 20 percent below asking price -- coming in at that, not being accepted at that,'' said Anne Walker of Coldwell Banker in Cupertino.

In San Mateo County, the May median price fell to $537,000, a 0.7 percent decline from May 2000, and the first time since November 1996 that the median price there has fallen from the year before.

The median is a midpoint, meaning half the homes sold in a given period sold for less than the median, and half sold for more.

In the seven other Bay Area counties median prices continued to climb compared to last year.

John Karevoll, an analyst with DataQuick, which compiled the information from county records, said the numbers point to the real estate market coming back to normal after about two years of soaring price appreciation and rapid-fire sales.

``It's not the bottom falling out, it was the top being blown off a year ago,'' he said. ``The high end is on hiatus, but the rest of the market's puttering along fine.''

Total sales volume is still so-so. In the nine-county Bay Area, the number of homes sold dropped for the sixth consecutive month in May, to a total 6,032. That's up 15.8 percent from April but down 14 percent from last May's figure of 7,012.

In Santa Clara County, 1,325 homes changed hands in May, up 12.9 percent from April, but down 16 percent from the same period a year earlier.

DataQuick's report reflects sales that closed in May, meaning the transactions likely began in the two months previous.

Real estate agents say conditions are changing somewhat. The number of homes for sale in Santa Clara County, which has been hovering around 5,000, dipped for the first time in 2001 just a few weeks ago. Although some see this as a sign that the real estate market slowdown is over, others are skeptical.

``Anytime you've got that level of inventory, if the absorption doesn't increase dramatically you're going to see some movement in prices downward,'' said Michael Mullinix, president of the Santa Clara County Association of Realtors.

Buyers are still afraid that home values are falling, Walker said, so they are assuaging their fears by trying to get houses for well under asking price.

One woman who is selling her house of 34 years in San Jose's Almaden Valley said she and her husband were taken aback by all the things a prospective buyer asked of them. The buyer offered less than the $689,000 asking price, wanted to finance the purchase with an assumable loan from the sellers and a seller-financed second mortgage at 2 percent interest.

Home buyers in Silicon Valley -- apprehensive about layoffs and the stock market -- have been slow to buy homes this year. The picture isn't quite the same elsewhere.

The California Association of Realtors released Monday their May sales data, which showed the median price of a single-family home in the state at $257,060, a 6.9 percent increase from May 2000. The trade group's data is taken from a survey of Multiple Listing Services statewide and reflects completed sales. The number of homes sold fell 12.9 percent compared to May 2001, CAR reported.

The National Association of Realtors said Monday that the nation's median house price in May was $145,500, up 5.7 percent from a year before.

Sales of existing homes nationwide rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.37 million units in the country, 3.5 percent higher than in May 2000. The annualized rate measures how many homes would sell this year if May's pace were maintained for the rest of the year.
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