Yes, I meant US$. My optimism is both company specific and market specific. We are going to end this mini bear, no later than October (I actually think that after a mild rally here in early July, we will have another swoon down to the early April lows in August and start a real bull move). However, the following rally will lack many of its former leaders in the internet space, and even some of the semi equip may not reach last years high by next April. Money has a way of being attracted to growth stories, particularly, early in a cycle to growth story that are not too cyclical. After all, money has to go somewhere, and no every one will be happy with the secure 5% of LT treasuries. I think that drug companies with growth prospects like QLTI will serve as a magnet for the sloshing liquidity going around. Of course, we will need to clear few technical hurdles ($22 and $28 will be tough), but by next spring, a lot of today's pain and tribulations, as well as today's caution, will be thrown to the wind, and while right now, we are selling at what I believe is quite a discount to fair value (I have "fair value" at around $25/$28), by next year, we will be looking at forecasts that are rising for 2003 (I have $1.00 plus/mius $.10 for 2003), and an excessive PE of 50 on those "next year" earnings (the pendulum goes both ways).
Zeev |
