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Biotech / Medical : Duramed (DRMD) Synthetic Estrogen Product

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To: vestor who wrote (1795)6/26/2001 10:31:03 PM
From: Thure Meyer  Read Replies (1) of 1837
 
Well,

The Russell is one factor. I'm not sure by when the portfolios have to be rebalanced. But another one must be an emerging awareness of what an interesting play this is.

Here we have a company that is actually profitable and gaining market share in what is arguably the largest growing sector in health (i.e., products for baby boomers), precisely in an area which traditionally has accounted for a lot of drug profits (hormones for women).

Since Duramed is such a small company (market capitalization wise + float), any trivial market gain translates into earnings that can drive the stock price. I think part of the price appreciation is speculation that Duramed is gaining market share and that this quarters earnings will show it.

Overall, this company could turn out to be the surprise of the decade if indeed Cenestin is accepted as Premarin. Remember, 27 million in real earnings is $1/share. Pick a multiple (say 40) and its a $40 stock, 54 million and its a $80 stock.

54 million in earnings is not a lot in the drug world...

Anyway, lets think of a positive future and cross our fingers for spectacular earnings.

Thure
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