GV, RE: "Ah, yes, the lovefest for Jonathon Joseph continues. Of course, last July, that wasn't the case. As always, no one on this thread cares about the quality of Intel research."
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No one? Did you miss all these pleas for more information, that were ignored or bashed?
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To: GVTucker who wrote
From: Amy J Tuesday, Jul 18, 2000 9:33 AM ET
RE: "Note that Joseph..."
Hi GV,
...I greatly appreciate that he identified a market shift (price shift in TCs) ... I am very encouraged to hear an analyst at least mention caps in a report (this seemed to be missing by several analysts last year). So, I'll give him a lot of credit for at least identifying a significant shift in pricing.
I think folks need to give him credit where credit is due because we need more analysts who are *at least* willing to provide information regarding caps because this is important to investors.
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Tuesday, Jul 18, 2000
From: Amy J
RE: "Unlike Amy though, I do fault Jon for not having the facts to support that conclusion."
Your statement misstates my opinion so I'll repeat my point again:
My point is: I do not fault an analyst for reporting MORE information, like the change in TC pricing. ( Please tell me what semi analyst pointed out the ensuing TC shortage back in August of 1999, when the industry really needed
analysts to do this type of leg-work? )
So, when I see an analyst write a report which points out a change in TC pricing, they get a compliment from me FOR pointing out this change in TCs ....which is MORE information than the next analyst who just states opinions and doesn't back them up with any information or facts.
Let's take a look at someone who does it right: Kumar. I like Kumar's style a lot - he lists out a plethora of facts - facts after facts. He's not a guy with just an opinion. This is exactly what I like to see. I want the facts and the facts had better be there.
...I will give credit to an analyst who mentions a significant fluctuation in TC pricing (which Jon did), since this is potentially an important indicator.
...Analysts should have been a lot more vocal on the TC shortage earlier last year, so, when I see an analyst highlight a change in TC prices, I'll give him/her a compliment...
Regards,
Amy J
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From: Amy J Tuesday, Jul 18, 2000
RE: "I'm sorry that you wrote such a long post"
No need to apologize - capacitors are important to semi investors. Too bad this doesn't get more discussion.
...
Regards,
Amy J
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From: Amy J Tuesday, Jul 18, 2000
RE: "Mr. Joseph may have indentified a Tantalum Capacitor shortage "
...you have it backwards... he correctly identified a reduction in pricing.
However, an analysis on overall caps would be needed in order to draw an accurate conclusion.
Regards,
Amy
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Tuesday, Jul 18, 2000
From: Amy J
My point was: at least he mentioned caps. ...
More complete info helps us investors.
Regards,
Amy J
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Monday, Jul 10, 2000
From: Amy J
RE: I am of the opinion that Jonathan Joseph...spew misinformation"
...I am going to be a bit tough in my post to you because you are being very harsh with an individual who has done us all a favor by providing us valuable information - the type of information which was not provided to us back in 1999 by the analyst community (and should have been).
As an investor, I value information the most. Sure, I may not agree with the opinion around that information, but I value any analyst which does the leg-work to provide valuable information and has the guts to make a call that doesn't go with the pack.
Any analyst who has just provided us with some key information on tantalum capacitors and who has done the leg-work on tantalum capacitors gets my respect and thanks, since this is key and highly relevant information that
was missing in the analyst community back in mid-1999 it appears. Let's not encourage a repeat of that.
Please tell me, since you do not like Jonathan's report, do you think tantalum capacitors are not plunging 50% in the last few weeks? Do you think Jonathan is wrong on this? Do you think the plunging tantalum prices do not put AMD at risk, as Jonathan pointed out? Isn't their a connection to TCs and AMD? Please answer this since these are Jonathan's points in his report, which you so criticized.
...Jonathan is the first semi analyst that I know that reported the drop in TCs.
not providing information is a worse evil than having a wrong opinion. I like information more than being upset if an opinion around that information is different than mine. I like how Jonathan provided that key piece of information on tantalum capacitors, which by the way, appeared to
be lacking back in 1999 and had significant ramifications.
So, contrary to you, I greatly appreciate the fact that Jonathan is the only semi analyst that I know who has reported the recent declining prices in tantalum capacitors. He's done his leg-work on this, and I respect this a lot. Have you done your leg-work on this? Do you criticize an analyst for doing this leg-work? I appreciate that Jonathan did this and provided this information to us investors.
...I seem to recall people on this thread had accused Dell of dishonesty about this. I took issue with that, just like I am now taking issue with folks criticizing Jonathan for providing us valuable information on TCs and for doing the leg-work --- leg-work which should and could have been done by the investment community back in August of 1999 (when there was a big shortage almost no one detected).
...For the (July 2000) report to be complete (to see if there's been an unexpected shift in the other direction), I would need to see a discussion around this (did original demand fall, or did supply overly increase), not just a discussion around the declining prices - why the prices declined is key. (Maybe the report covered this?)
/* GV, still reading? Too darn bad this question in July 2000, "why the prices declined is key" was ignored. It seems easy for you to claim a year later, "no one was interested in quality Intel research", but where were you when this question was asked? You're a member of the Thread too. You know price drops either indicate overall demand has fallen off or replacement suppliers have come on board. Imagine if this had been researched - which of these two possibilities it was - because possibly many of us would be financially better for the research. */
...
RE: "I wish they would take Ben Franklin's advice, "It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt."
I won't be disrespectful to anyone who provides information and who does leg-work. I like to encourage this. Also, I prefer to read different people's opinion, rather than be blinded, like the industry was back in Q3-99 because everyone was following the pack -- just remember the shortage that took quite a few people by surprise back in 1999, because folks weren't doing their legwork or were following the pack.
...
RE: "hopefully, Joseph and Peck will loose the credibility with "The Street that they so justly deserve to lose."
I continue to respect anyone who provides information, especially on TCs.
I do not like how the media tore him apart for his report. They should have given him credit for providing this information.
Did anyone else provide this information? So, let's separate out the information from the opinion.
His information has great value. ...find out what's the underlying cause in the price drop - orig demand issues or too many new TC suppliers. ...
Regards,
Amy J
(end)
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GV, the next time I raise a yellow flag on this Thread and dig my heels in on a particular issue that could negatively impact INTC, I'd certainly appreciate your encouragement as well as input.
I raised a flag in 1999 that indicated a shortage could be here due to tight component supply (when you incorrectly claimed Dell was lying about the supply problem).
And I again raised a flag indicating a need for more research information to determine if demand had fallen off, when TC pricing suddenly dropped by 50% in July 2000. Funny how that was ignored. Too bad too.
Regards,
Amy J |
