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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 665.67

-0.9%

Nov 17 4:00 PM EST

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (79218)	6/27/2001 9:33:31 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Zeev, Further to my comments about what I believe the big funds are doing and have been doing over the decline. I noted Fidelity and Janus to you already..especially Janus. You mentioned that there are just so many funds out there. I don't know if you watch CNBC but the usual guests that manage money that were so bullish on tech last fall are underweighted the group. The guest host today, Eric Gustaffson who manages a growth fund is light on tech. The other big bulls like Brian Finerty are talking about retest. One can never know exactly what the patterns of the big mutual funds are but one has to take the information from the most bullish investors in technology and look their underweighting or caution as a key indicator. That information isavailable and one can only make a calculated prediction of what funds may be doing...and what that means for stocks. Furthermore, defensive sectors are now showing weakness as well...the growth stocks of the past 6 to 9 months are showing signs of stalling. Oil stocks topping. Profit warnings at what were thought to be good defensive groups. One can take this kinds of factors in making decisions that for some reason you consider "gut calls". That is why I cannot see the Nasdaq at 1850 as you are predicting by next week. IMHO, the market heads higher right into July...and that is my "gut" feel.<g> Sticking to a target of Nasdaq 2400 at least by mid July...but it could get to 2500 in that time. FED decision is a non-factor as well. Nasdaq short interest just hit another record for June.

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