I'm trying to figure out at what price it's a good value, and I am not at all sure we are there yet. I think I've still got a long time to figure it out, as telco equip will probably be about the last sector for the fundamentals to improve. 2002 at the earliest. Could be 2004.
And the JDSU chart doesn't show any hint that the bottoming formation has begun. The telcos look like they might have bottomed. Worldcom peaked in June 1999, NT didn't peak till July 2000, while JDSU didn't peak till March 2000, and didn't really collapse until October 2000. That lag between telcos and telco-equips/component-makers in the peaks may be repeated with the troughs as well. WCOM has been in a bottoming formation since November 2000, and is still there (I bought a bit of it recently at 15, will buy more if it hits 13). Before I take a LT position in JDSU, I will have to see the stock form a base, bounce at about the same level repeatedly for several months.
People have been calling the bottom all the way down, and will continue to do so. Sitting and watching and doing nothing is a hard thing for many investors to do, but it is the right thing to do with JDSU, for now. |
