A. L.,
<< I am glad you are paying attention to EDGE. This is a technology that from many outward appearances is doomed to history's trash heap (not so great technology, limited operator support) >>
EDGE seems to be one of those "future shock" things. Its fantasy than all of a sudden, maybe its real.
One of the real background technology enablers for EDGE, seems to be Tropian (and i mean to follow them a little closer).
<< If EDGE does get deployed by larger N.A. and S.A. TDMA operators, as you've intimated is greater than a remote possibility, the implications for our San Diego outfit are not good, and we won't see CDMA in any form for a long time w/r/t a large part of the hemisphere's subscribers. >>
I have always maintained that for capacity starved, or soon to be capacity starved (once data starts flowing up and down the pipe) American (North and South) carriers, that CDMA makes better sense than any other technology.
... but any technology flip is tough, and consideration is given by carriers to more than just speed, efficiency, and the better choice of mobile IP.
The plight of the IS-136 TDMA operators is serious. Economies of scale have gone out the window for TDMA-EDGE.
This presents an opportunitty for Nokia (GSM-850 with EDGE) & it presents an opportunitty for Ericsson & Motorola (who can go either way) and for Lucent & Nortel who would most probably (and despite what they might say) champion 1xRTT.
It surely is an opportunitty for Qualcomm.
I have long counted Cingular as not likely to go 1xRTT (despite Lynette Luna's "sources say" - her sources being Lucent & Nortel, most likely.
Latin America is another story. I happen to think that BSI is likely to go all the way with CDMA. SBC likely to go GSM. The many others wide open. Some will ride TDMA for awhile, it beats AMPS.
GSM-EDGE might not be the greatest technology going, but it sure is better than attempting to migrate GPRS to higher data rates using CS-3, or CS-4, which may be like trying to get 1xRTT to 614 kbps using RC 4 (I learned about RC 4 & 7 & 9 & Spreading Rate 3 from mightylakers my "coach"), until or unless Best Effort QoS is improved in IS-2000 B.
The outfit in San Diego I park a lot of my money in, needs some carrier wins. It is that simple.
They need them in Latin America. They can't wish EDGE away, or pooh pooh it.
The UWCC guys are part of the 3GPP global initiative and that's significant.
Unicom is good progress. The WLL stuff in India is good, Nextel will be good if CDMA gets over a hump (much like the GAIT hump).
I doubt seriously that Nokia has committed to GAIT handsets. Siemens is on that hook big time, and I bet Ericsson is on it and would maybe like to get off. Motorola, they seem to attack anything, but maybe they're getting smarter (how many times have we said that?).
Has Nokia committed to GSM-EDGE handsets for AWS - I would bet on it - but that is between Nokia and AWS. It will be between Nokia and Cingular, when and if they get close to contract for GSM-EDGE.
- Eric - |
