In all fairness Dale, I am one of the people that think the Nasdaq will reach 1800-1900ish, especially as I think that support between the 1950-2000 gap needs to be broken before we can finally get to the upside.
Mind you, if there are enough other people out there that think the same thing (I haven't been reading many other message boards that talk about that kind of stuff), then it probably won't happen. Mind you, I think it'll be the crap in the Nasdaq 100 that will cause it anyway, not the small or mid caps that still have significant value.
e.g. stuff in the QQQ like VRTS, VRSN, TMPW, TLAB, SEBL, CHKP etc etc shouldn't be able to trade for P/E's of 50-100.. of course, I'd never short on a valuation metric only.
QQQ TRIVIA: What are the six largest capitalized stock in the Nasdaq 100? MSFT, INTC, CSCO, ORCL, DELL, AMGN. Adds up to about $940 billion.
HARDER TRIVIA: What is the current market cap of the next 94 companies in the Nasdaq 100? Answer: about $940 billion.
In other words, if we are really going to see a fall in the Nasdaq, it would be much easier to realize it if one of those companies took a big hit than 20 or 30 of the small boys. But in the small to mid cap world, the broad indicies mean absolutely nothing. |
