Hi Ron, The details are none of my business, but generally, to the extent you are willing to reveal, how are you positioned in the investment arena?
The trouble I am concerned about is that the FED rate moves has not moved the corporate borrowing rate to any significant extent (material, substantial, or other hedge words I can use), and the business cycle, if we agree that it is still valid, will move through its historic script, finally hitting the consumer hard, then the banks, and financial intermediaries, culminating in a flurry of personal and business bankruptcies, etc etc ... within the tech sector and embracing other sectors, as the whole enterprise gurgle downward, leaving a trail of bubbles.
Now, I do realize that the FED moves has probably prevented the bond yields from moving up more than it has, and has certainly prevented the bond market from seizing up, for now. Greenspan's bullets are about exhausted, wasted on a swarm of debt/tech locusts, and we will only know the outcome of the only effort possible when we know. I merely fear the answer, and thus my noted positioning in the investment arena. Greenspan has few bullets for the only weapon he has should a new 'unfriendly' appear out of the blue.
Japan II (bubble burst, strong currency, lowering yield, splash damage, government intervention, still strong consumer spending) is happening now, with variation, in the US.
I am not looking to make a profit on the way down. I am not smart enough and not confident enough to try. I want to not have a serious loss, and stay comfortably alive, so that I have a chance on the way up. Meantime, the cleansing process will take time, and claim victims.
Chugs, Jay |
