MicroE.
<< Why can't you just admit it. Nokia is late with their GPRS phones. >>
For the plain and simple reason that I am not into conscious fabrication, distortion of fact, or the creation of misinformation. I can't make millions into tens of millions, and I can only hold a company accountable for what they publicly announce.
I would not for instance hold Qualcomm accountable for the sampling date of a chip they place on a roadmap, particularly if it is placed far right. A roadmap, is just that, a roadmap.
If, however, a chipset manufacturer makes a public press release of a critical chip, on lets say February 28, 2000, and in that press release they state that the chip is expected to sample in Q4 2000, and it samples in April 2000 .... I consider that chip late. I also think I am entitled to raise an eyebrow when the press release announcing sampling states "on time", even when I can understand why it did not sample "on time".
cdmatech.com
cdmatech.com
And so it goes with Nokia, and handsets. In this case we have more than a press release, we have a formal product release of 2 handset models, and in addition we have the CEO telling the world that they will make initial GPRS shipments Q3, with volume ("millions") in Q4.
Nokia is now firmly on the hook to ship at least one of the 2 GPRS models (8310) they announced at CeBIT in some quantity no later than September 30, in either a 2+1 or 3+1 configuration.
They are also on the hook to ship volume of 2 models (at least 2.1 million by end of year).
As late as Monday they indicated they would meet these targets and that European carriers were about to start integration testing.
If they miss those minimum highly visible targets, they are LATE, and they are deservedly subject to INTENSE criticism. Jorma's A** is on the line on this one. If he misses a Q3 ship he can only partially recover by shipping "millions" for arrival on shelves in retail channels by Xmas.
As Martin T. pointed out, Jorma came back with the comment (in another response to Q&A on 1/30/01 than the one I linked) and stated "GPRS I think will have a significant impact ... you know, when we say millions, we mean millions and not one point something millions." In that same segment he went on to say:
Well I think the learning really is that our range of 3G products ... we always put more emphasis much more emphasis on 3G than on GPRS ... that's a resource question ... you have to stay focused .. so I think the learning is that we have a really broad lineup in 3G whereas in GPRS it will not be hitting all the market segments as we do in GSM but it will still be substantial.
Jorma's statements imply to me that 2.1 million doesn't really hack it, but I certainly do not expect 20.1 million (tens of millions), and it will be disappointing to me if Nokia ships only 2.1 million, or just 2=1 configurations, since the 2 models released are also to be available in a 3+1 version.
With the exception of the 9110/9210 Communicator, Nokia is not really into shipping less than "millions" of anything, and when they ship "millions" it is while they are ramping to "tens of millions".
Candidly, even though there is pent up demand for GPRS handsets, I don't know that the "demand" would yet trigger shippable orders for "tens of millions" of Nokia GPRS handsets.
On the recent Nokia CEO Road show, however, Jorma was asked about the GPRS ramp and whether or not Nokia was able to meet pent up demand relative to competitive availability of GPRS handsets. He was rather candid about the fact that by year end they would not be fully ramped, again indicating to me that there won't be "tens of millions" this year.
I do think we will see a 3rd GPRS model (with small keyboard - not the 9210 Communicator) announced from Nokia this fall (its been pictured in slides but has not been subject to comment), but it may not make stores by Christmas.
<< How did Motorola get to the market first? >>
Rather easy. They kluged a 2G motherboard on an existing model, built to a version of the standard 2 revs back from current version, and rationed it out as prototypes as early as June of 99 (BT Cellnet). They went one standard rev up and released the prototypes in larger volume to Sonera last December, and Sonera, Motorola, and GPRS, were bloodied as a result.
<< I'm certain that the carriers were expecting to see Nokia GPRS phones by now.>>
They may have wished that. Nokia did not give them the right to set that expectation. Given FT's public comments last September, evidently Ericsson did.
I am reasonably certain that Korean carriers were expecting to see Qualcomm MSM5100 chipsets in their vendors hands by now and I think Qualcomm set that expectation, although I'm sure they gave new guidance to those carriers the moment they knew they could not meet that expectation, which is what Nokia will have to do now if they are going to miss.
<< They (Nokia) have ZERO on the market right now, right?
Right. ZERO. As anticipated. If any exist (and there are indications they do) they are preproduction and being used for early integration testing on carrier networks or test switches.
Motorola is first to market with the T260 which is now a released model (although Motorola is not fully ramped). Moreover virtually every model in their product line (except a few low ends) will be GPRS enabled by year end (supposedly). They have already formally announced 4 models, and they are all tri-band as are Ericsson's (which makes me wonder about the EMC GSM-1900 comments - although that related to VOLUME and Motorola & Ericsson may be faced with ramping problems).
<< I thought Nokia was the leader? >>
Are they not?
Nokia is the handset leader in unit volume, revenue, market share (>2x their next closest competitor), margin (80% of the industries profit some say), and brand awareness.
Nokia is not always first to market. They pick their targets (sometimes strategically) for that distinction, and if they did not, margin would suffer.
They were early to market with a GSM WAP model. They regret it. They did not launch clean. They would call that "learning"
<< I also thought Nokia was the leader in WCDMA. >>
Ericsson holds that distinction of being the leader for booked business from WCDMA.
<< Where are all those WCDMA handsets for Docomo's network? >>
A long time ago Nokia decided not to participate in that game of tiny quantities of handsets manufactured to a non-forward compatible stripped down version of the 'R99' standard.
First models will be multi-mode, multi-band, and we can do a "Nokia Close Watch on them starting late Q3 02, unless Jorma backs off on previously delivered guidance.
I really do NOT anticipate Nokia to be first to market with a dual-mode WCDMA handset, but they could be.
<< NEC seems to have some models available. >>
... and Fujitsu (although Fujitsu's may only operate circuit switched at 64 kbps).
<< Where is Nokia's 1X handset? >>
Unannounced and unreleased. December statements were to the effect they would release (not deliver) a 1x model Q4 or Q1 02. I think (not sure) they have made a statement recently that they would have a 1x handset by year end. I doubt that they mean shipping, but I have not seen any statement, other than one made Monday by a lower level Nokia exec that all Nokia CDMA handsets "launched" in 2002 would be 1x.
Regardless, I won't buy an early model. <g>
<< Samsung and LG seem to have a few out there >>
Samsung has the most late to market (1xRTT) handset (of any type) I have EVER seen. This SPH-X1000 sucker has been released so many times it would make your head spin, and the latest release was May 29.:
siliconinvestor.com
Their 4+1 GPRS handset is just as late.
As Jorma says (I'm paraphrasing). Some companies announce their "promiseware' earlier than others.
That is a lot of Nokia on a Qualcomm thread, but I am hopeful I was responsive to your questions.
I'll close by saying that if someone would like to add "TENS" to any million statement, I would like to see it added to 1xRTT chipsets this Qualcomm fiscal year, but I will be as satisfied if we make initial guidance, and very excited if we exceed it.
EDIT: Thanks to Cooters for referencing the very good summary of the recent presentation by Pekka Vartiainen, which I alluded to above, and to Ben for the June 28, 2001 PR on the Nokia 8390 (GSM/GPRS 1900 for the Americas which I was unable to find last evening when posting to him.
Best,
- Eric - |
