Greg, I doubt the "death of the PC" will come from the quarters you are citing (too much of the outside world is still starving for that luxury), but what will kill its growth in the 5 to 8 years time frame you are mentioning, and cause a general dislocation in the whole semi business, comes from other quarters, the death of Moore laws. It has at best another seven years to go, and once additional features and speed no longer come at lower prices, the industry will be relegated to a status not much different than any other commodity manufacturer like steel or copper., IMTO.
The markets will probably start and "feel" these shifts some three four years ahead of time, thus we may have seen the last "hurrah" of outrageous valuations in this sector last spring. Oh, we are still going to see double baggers from bottom to top (including MU), but overall, the growth will slowly, over the next 20 years, approach the growth of GDP, not the neck breaking growth of the last 20 years.
Zeev |
