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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (110569)	6/28/2001 7:52:57 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (4) of 436258

>> who says it will tank to 200? that's a pipe dream imo. << gold could easily hit 200. tell me why it can't. interesting that many on this thread believe the market is going down for the count yet gold will magically hold up? doubtful. if the market tankolas so will gold. your best bet is to hope the market rebounds in a big way. >> besides, since the gold indices have bottomed out in November of last year, ABX has been by far the worst performer: << you're absolutely right. abx has underperformed for the last several months. it has far outperformed over the last several years. >> iow, it has performed better during the bear market...but in a bull market it will underperform << hah! who says gold is in a bull market? >> it's also the most overvalued gold stock on a reserve valuation basis. why should i pay $100 per oz. of reserves in the ground when i can get them for $3 by buying unhedged Harmony? << i don't know enough about the specifics of harmony to comment, but obviously abx is viewed as more profitable in the current climate. >> i repeat, in a bear market there's no reason to buy gold mining stocks at all << perhaps some people just want to own gold stocks for the long-term as an insurance policy and aren't good at figuring out when to time bull and bear markets. they would have done much better with abx. >> (the joy of seeing the hedgers tank less i can do without... << umm, abx has far outperformed the nasdaq and the s&p 500 over the last 15 years! less hedged stocks like hm and nem have underperformed the nasdaq and s&p. proof is in the pudding! >> i want my stocks to go up, not go down). and in a bull market, the non-hedgers outperform by a wide margin. << like i said, if you are great at timing, i would say that abx is not your best bet. but it makes absolutely no sense for people to trash abx all the time and blame them for some worthless conspiracy theory when they are the best performing gold stock out there for many years! it's not logical for people to trash on abx and blame them for gold's problems when they have done the best for shareholders in such a trying period for gold bugs. but then most gold bugs aren't logical so why should i be surprised!

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