Comments welcome anyone!
Re: markets....have to say, I am decidely mixed here...
Bearish set-up is still good medium, longer-term, but I think we have to burn off some bull energy still (shorter-term).....another good headfake or two (like today), but over a longer period of time, would be a good way to do it...
As evidence for a short-term bull case, I cite:
- Today's move counted out 5 waves on the up-legs, implying a completion of the up (today?) should happen....likely its a 5 of a 3 wave (I'm not going to cite my sources on this one..g..and stand ready to be overruled by the founding fathers here if their counts vary greatly). If correct, this would leave a 4 (corrective), and 5 (up) for next week.
- Ameritraders did not buy yesterday's rally...bought less than on previous days, and generally have not been buying this recent up..
- Still got quarter-ending, mark-em-up BS tomorrow. Also, Don Sew notes the phenomena of market being historically strong in the end-of-month, beginning of month window. So, this strength could last a few days yet
- Rydex funds are still very bullish, both Naz and S&P...S&P short interest at a record as of Wed.
- Short-interest very high on everything still...
- All of the oversold/overbought indicators I follow state this has room to run (on all indices) yet (over next 2-3 days)
On the bear side:
- P/C, Vix, Vin show further amazingly high complacency/near record levels, however, for the most part, these indicators haven't TURNED yet..(low can get lower still)
- July/August/September is a historic bad time to be long, but more so after July 15th
- We are up 7 out of last 8 days in Naz
- Still at neckline on quite a few H&S patterns
- Even if we were to break 2150 today, a clean downtrend line exists from 2 previous COMPX tops that comes out around 2200....however, it looks any surge (more than 1%)today will take out that equivelent downtrend line on QQQs and NDX
- Softie news out...stock still couldn't close above 74 here..
- Cynic would say that we just had a "mark 'em up" EOM/EOQ rally here, next week, selling resumes
Conclusion (?): Despite the possibility that this was all a EOM/EOQ mark-em-up rally here.....next week is a holiday week, and likely low-volume, so I think it is just as easy for stocks to get marked up next week as well. Big money knows that there is enough short-interest to play another squeeze, and what would these rallies within a bear be...without another headfake or 2....before we go down...
As July goes on, I think the bull case gets harder and harder to present. I am unsure/unclear if this thing dies next week (as some are looking for), or 2 weeks after that (which others, like Baja Fish Taco, are looking for; citing historic mid-July tops as precedent, and the symettry- to previous rally- of a nice 30 day rally off marginal bottom around 20th of this month)....But I am thinking any rally here goes no higher than a marginal high above 2325 (at very best), and no later than July 20th......I am favoring a "later in July scenario" more than an "earlier"....simply because the "later in July" scenario allows better for some headfakes, taking out of shorts, even more excessive bullishness, lower Rydex figures, etc.....
Of course, all this could all collapse sooner, but I am usually early, and the market usually fools me by hanging on longer than I think....so I am trying to be patient here...I just hope I am positioned accordingly when BIG DOWN does come...
Having spewed this, I reserve the right to change on a dime. That would only be prudent-g. I gladly accept any and all rebuttals here.
BTW- Anyone know about Heinz's turn dates? Are we getting close to one? I seem to recall someone posting that he thinks big down is coming (after July 6th?), although don't quote me on that date... |
