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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 36.82+1.5%Dec 19 9:30 AM EST
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To: maui_dude who wrote (138301)6/29/2001 7:59:51 AM
From: Amy J  Read Replies (1) of 186894
 
Hi maui_dude, good intuition re Dell

I saw your post (that no one replied to) asking if Dell would flex its muscles, given the new industry dynamics.

Did you see the survey Dell has (inquirer takes you to it)?

RE: "potential itanium market"

This is the most important question I've seen on the thread in a year, as it relates to INTC valuation. Thanks for digging on this issue.

The answer to this question determines the eventual INTC. The server biz holds the company up right now. Not comm, not desktop.

Intel's mid-term future is as a server chip company. What % Itanium's share is, determines how large the potential valuation is. Hope to see more posts on this.

1M * 4 qtrs * (what is Itanium's %) * $3000.

Alpha chip 1M (?) Would that be a portion of an incremental EPS contribution of $.40/sh ?

4M * 3000 * (Itanium + Xeon %)/6.72B, approx incremental EPS of say $1.61/sh * (Itanium + Xeon %)

P/E = 25 = x/1.61, ST to MT stock increase = (Intel %) * $40. Some portion of $40. Almost a run up based upon existing market.

Of course, what that % is, is the key.

But the most interesting data is the potential market size, for the future. That's when the numbers start to get interesting.

And where's the research estimates on this?

Regards,
Amy J
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