Joel, I can't help you with the fundamentals, but I may be able to help with some technical analysis.
NAT is approaching an oversold range. If you'll look at the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), you will notice it is sitting at 27 Anything under 30 is oversold, anything over 70 is overbought, the 50 line serves as support or resistance, depending on the direction of the trend.
When you see the RSI indicator cross back up over the 30 line, that'll be your signal to buy.
The Stochastic Indicator is similar to the RSI. Under 20 is oversold, over 80 is overbought. The Stochastic Indicator usually signals a buy and sell sign ahead of the RSI. A move up over the 20 line would be a buy signal.
The MACD Indicator measures the trend. The dark black line is headed down and it shows by the price of the stock. When you see the dark black line turn up and cross over the thin line, that's very bullish. It'll confirm a trend reversal in the share price. On the other hand, when you see that black line cross back down over the thin line, that's your signal to sell. Look at the chart and you'll clearly see what I mean.
stockcharts.com[h,a]declyimy[pc25!c50!c200!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Ua12,26,9!Lh14,3]
Now the candlestick pattern is what I call fun. Believe it or not, the pattern for today indicates the stock could be bottoming here. However, it's the closing price that makes the difference. When you look at the candlestick pattern after the close today and it's a red hollow candle, (hollow meaning the candle isn't colored in red like the other red sticks on the chart), then that will be an indication that a trend reversal could happen next week.
I love hollow red candles at the bottom of a trend. They can be very bullish. The price must close up from where it's at now in order to do that though.
If you see a hollow red candle tonight, then wait for Monday's close. A hollow red candle followed by an up day on Monday would indicate it's time to buy. Your other indicators should confirm this Monday if the stock finishes up. The indicators will have turned up by then too.
Now this is important, bearish Api's or any other negative news over the weekend, or the first part of the week, can cause bullish trading patterns to break down. So, you must keep your eyes and ears open.
One other important note, I used the daily chart. This is for short term trading. For intermediate term trading, use the weekly chart. For long term trading, use the monthly chart.
A hollow red candle today, followed by an up day on Monday, absent any negative news, and I think you will have nailed the bottom. All in my humble opinion of course.
dabum |
