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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 175.84-1.9%1:59 PM EST
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To: pcstel who wrote (12223)6/29/2001 1:52:46 PM
From: tradeyourstocks  Read Replies (1) of 196971
 
But, when you 'define' the standard, and it's evolution.. Like Qualcomm has with IS-95A/B/2000/HDR etc. Then you have an inherent large lead time in the ASIC development process

That's true and you'll see it play out incredibly well for both 1x and HDR in the next 5 years. That's where the volume chip sales will be in the 3G market. You can look at both Qualcomm's and the UMTS Forum's expectations for WCDMA to convince yourself that WCDMA chip market will be negligible for the next 5 years when compared to CDMA2000 and GSM. Your suggestion that QCOM is already late in WCDMA is only accurate if you think there is going to be a WCDMA market to sell into anytime soon.
Another Qualcomm advantage you haven't mentioned is their current list of customers. Many are Korean, Japanese and Chinese companies that IMO will capture the majority of the 3G handset market. These customers will naturally look to Qualcomm for not only CDMA2000 chips but WCDMA as well. Same reason Nokia is looking to TI for all of their chips. The WCDMA chip market will be Qualcomm's market to lose.
By the time the standards are "harmonized" and the carriers come up with a profitable plan for UMTS, we will see who is the leader in 3G.

MicroE
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