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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (19408)	6/29/2001 4:05:35 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) of 30051

Zeev: Re: "I do not, you have to look at VXI and VXN within their own bands, not absolute numbers. I have stated before, powerful rallies started with VIX lower than 20." Just for fun, lets look at absolute numbers. VIX is showing a negative divergence. We have had a lower VIX but also a lower print on the SPX. Compare June 5th reading on the SPX with that of today. These are the low reading of the VIX of late. We are 4.30% lower on the SPX but have the VIX essentially equal when comparing the two days. So how much juice does the VIX have left? Less than three points maximum if history is any guide. In order to get a significant rally of these levels, one would have to believe that the VIX will stay locked at these lower levels for a long time and maybe even drift a bit lower. So it seems the Nasdaq is getting a boost from rotation more than anything. Was that the message of the TRIN? Sell the NYSE before the end of the quarter to buy tech? Tech. had a nice performance for the quarter. Drugs fell apart. Oops. OSX is crashing. Ooops. So let's run to techs. Broader market must participate or this thing is going to run out of steam.

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