<<gold could easily hit 200. tell me why it can't. interesting that many on this thread believe the market is going down for the count yet gold will magically hold up? doubtful. if the market tankolas so will gold. your best bet is to hope the market rebounds in a big way.>>
i can tell you why not. at that price, a large percentage of global gold production would simply cease, and the gold carry trade would blow up. there is absolutely no reason why gold should be correlated to the stock market...they sometimes go the same way, and sometimes the opposite way. the only provable long term correlation is the inverse correlation of gold to the dollar. again, has nothing to do with stocks.
<<you're absolutely right. abx has underperformed for the last several months. it has far outperformed over the last several years.>>
who cares? the last several years were a bear market, anyone in gold stocks during that time made a grave mistake, regardless of which gold stocks were held.
<<hah! who says gold is in a bull market?>>
the gold stocks say one is coming. they ARE in a bull market, since November of last year, and tend to lead the metal.
<<i don't know enough about the specifics of harmony to comment, but obviously abx is viewed as more profitable in the current climate>>
you should acquaint yourself with Harmony's specifics (since you seem interested in the sector). Harmony has outperformed ABX since January of '98 (over 5 years, their performance is the same) and it did so without hedging (so ABX has NOT been viewed as obviously more profitable...it isn't. it's just more overvalued). it's one of the few growth companies in the sector, and one of the best stocks to play its revival.
<<perhaps some people just want to own gold stocks for the long-term as an insurance policy and aren't good at figuring out when to time bull and bear markets. they would have done much better with abx.>>
i'm not one of those perhaps people, but even if i were, i'd rather be insured with a gold stock that doesn't carry the baggage of a hedge book. since that sort of invalidates the insurance aspect. a hedge book is only insurance against declining gold prices.
<<umm, abx has far outperformed the nasdaq and the s&p 500 over the last 15 years! less hedged stocks like hm and nem have underperformed the nasdaq and s&p. proof is in the pudding!>>
that's true. at one point, ABX was a great growth story, and it is that growth period during which the outperformance was achieved. over the past 5 years, ABX has performed dismally, as have of course other gold stocks. the performance gap between ABX and NEM is beginning to close however. another hint that it's a bull market in its beginning stages.
<<like i said, if you are great at timing, i would say that abx is not your best bet. but it makes absolutely no sense for people to trash abx all the time and blame them for some worthless conspiracy theory when they are the best performing gold stock out there for many years! it's not logical for people to trash on abx and blame them for gold's problems when they have done the best for shareholders in such a trying period for gold bugs. but then most gold bugs aren't logical so why should i be surprised! >>
i'm not a gold bug, and haven't accused ABX of being a member of a conspiracy. i trust my timing more than theirs however, and that is why i avoid the stock. besides, as i've pointed out, it's by far the most overvalued gold stock based on reserve valuation. there are better fish to fry in the sector. |
