>> i can tell you why not. at that price, a large percentage of global gold production would simply cease, and the gold carry trade would blow up <<
first of all i didn't say it had to stay there for very long. second of all there is plenty of gold in central bank vaults to supply any needs. they could massively unload on the market in a panic.
>> there is absolutely no reason why gold should be correlated to the stock market...they sometimes go the same way, and sometimes the opposite way. the only provable long term correlation is the inverse correlation of gold to the dollar. again, has nothing to do with stocks. <<
i didn't say it had to correlate to the stock market. i simply said that if the market tanks gold will probably go with it. more than likely because if the market keeps tanking people will buy into the deflation scenario where cash is king, not gold. anyway you're right, gold isn't correlated to practically anything anymore--except pain! all it does is go down no matter what is going on with the markets.
>> who cares? <<
i care only to the extent that i was pointing out since abx has done so well over the long-term for their shareholders when unhedged stocks haven't, it's positively ludicrous for people to go on and on about how much abx sucks. those people aren't thinking logically. last time i checked shareholder value was high on the list when judging a company. apparently illogical conspiracy theorists need a scapegoat and abx fits the bill. their problem, not mine.
>> the last several years were a bear market, anyone in gold stocks during that time made a grave mistake, regardless of which gold stocks were held. <<
i don't see how this negates the point i was trying to make.
>> the gold stocks say one is coming. they ARE in a bull market, since November of last year, and tend to lead the metal. <<
just because they are off the lows doesn't mean they are in a bull market. tell me what defines gold stocks being in a bull market for you, because so far i consider it a bear market rally until shown otherwise.
>> Harmony has outperformed ABX since January of '98 (over 5 years, their performance is the same) and it did so without hedging <<
well i don't have anything bad to say about harmony either. i'm not the one who is blaming bear markets on gold stocks.
>> i'd rather be insured with a gold stock that doesn't carry the baggage of a hedge book <<
a 3000% return is some kind of baggage huh! yes i would feel so much better knowing i was buying a "real" gold stock and not a quasi hedge fund while i sat with no capital gains after 15 years holding a "real" gold company like hm. who cares how they did it, abx has delivered shareholder value, and that is the bottom line.
>> i'm not a gold bug, and haven't accused ABX of being a member of a conspiracy <<
i wasn't singling you out per se. i just used your comments about abx as a springboard to air my thoughts. |
