re: QCOM - CDMA growth
We are now completing 2001 H2.
EMC has 5 months official subscriber numbers for GSM in, and unofficial numbers for CDMA and TDMA.
We won't have official numbers for CDMA for almost 3 months out of CDG, and their abacus.
I decided to take a peek and start some preliminary drilling down on the first 5 months of the year:
The single positive I've noticed for CDMA is that it has caught back up with GSM's rate of subscriber growth, and could possibly exceed GSM and catch TDMA by the end of the year.
However:
* GSM market share continues to increase worldwide and now exceeds 70%.
* CDMA market share is holding steady at 11.5% of all subs and 12.5% of digital.
* TDMA market share is declining.
* Analog AMPS decline is accelerating.
* The ratio of GSM subs to CDMA subs has dramatically increased from 5.1:1 at year 2000 end to 5.7:1 in 5 short months
* GSM is beginning to move up rapidly in the Americas.
The cleaned up numbers and some analysis is here:
Message 16016068
What's the point in my attempting to get inside the numbers and look for a trend?
There are several ... but I'm primarily concerned with market leadership, right now.
Gorillas or Kings are market leaders.
And market leadership connotes market share.
Clearly Qualcomm is the market leader of CDMA (and then some).
The market share of CDMA, however, within the larger sector of wireless, has not only stalled, it has actually declined since I 1st invested in Qualcomm in January 1999.
... so I'm looking for a trend reversal.
I haven't clearly seen it yet, but I sense there may be a slight positive change.
My view is long.
<< << if we should pat ourselves on the back for having come to Christensen's conclusions a long time ago that 3G will take a long time to build out. :) >>
Perhaps we should have told that to Dr. Irwin Jacobs. <g>
Last year Dr. Jacobs stated frequently when forecasting out for the future that after 2005 CDMA would predominate.
I, on the other hand, took a slightly longer term view, and suggested it would be at least 2007 before CDMA became the dominant air interface or access method to a mobile wireless network.
I now say it will be at least 2008.
Grudgingly, I suspect the more optimistic but still realistic Dr. Irwin Jacobs might be thinking 2007.
Maybe he'll stick around till then.
I hope so. Unless Dr. Paul matures.
<< we don't have a clear understanding of Christensen's definitions of "open" and "closed" standards; we really don't know (or at least I don't know) how he is using those terms. >>
On a sort of similar note, I'm ondering if you have caught the dialogue going on, on the Moderated Qualcomm thread between pcstel and others starting at around post 12194 or so.
In relationship to Qualcomm, pcstel is discussing a concept he refers to as "control over Technology Entitlement" or "Adminsitration of Technology Entitlement".. which seems to be similar to the competetive advantage gained by control of a proprietary open architecture.
- Eric - |
