Dale: AMD will not be ramping .13-micron in Q4. At best, AMD will be sampling 0.13-micron in Q4. Of course, Intel's 0.13-micron ramp could be well behind schedule, if they are not being honest about the SVGI equipment delays not affecting them.
Actually, I was thinking as much of the temporary drop in capacity as lines are converted to .13µ as any online .13µ capacity.
I look for AMD's ASPs to climb in Q3, probably to the mid-90s, then plunge in Q4 to about the same as in Q2.
Q4 seems hard to forecast. Will the economy be in serious recovery mode by then? If so, the (temporary) reduced capacity of Intel (caused by switch to .13µ, as well as increased P4 production) could lead to a supply-constrained situation for Q4. That's a big IF, I know, and I don't think the odds of it happening are good, but where exactly supply and demand will fall is hard to gauge. Additionally, AMD might get a few first tier OEM wins for the AthlonMP, as well as many more for the mobile Athlons and Durons.
If Intel has a successful 0.13-micron ramp, AMD's ASPs will continue to slide in Q1 2002, but even with a relatively unsuccessful 0.13-micron ramp by Intel, ASPs should plunge in Q2 2002.
Hector has claimed Q4 for .13µ, which implies (at minimum) volume availability in Q1. So why would Intel's (comparatively slow) .13µ ramp hurt AMD's ASPs in Q2?
-fyo |
