Glancing through the full 10K now and it seems they lost 44 cents for the quarter versus estimates of 22 cents. Personally, I expected an upwards surprise of a few cents because of the increasing installed base of PS2's and the popularity of High Heat baseball, but instead it looks like a downward surprise of 100%. The year came in at negative $1.85 but I don't know what the estimate for the year was. Surely not that much loss.
I haven't gone through the filing very closely yet to look at revenue, margins, and the amount of one-times, so I don't know if the "disappointment" is for any "good reasons".
So I don't know yet whether to expect that they sandbagged and will have a better next quarter due to GBA being out and even more PS2's. The fact that I was able to pick up a PS2 in Walmart a couple of months ago (the last one in stock at the time) tells me that perhaps the supply of the machines is starting to get closer to the demand, but is still behind a bit.
It turns out I did fill on my options but that I apparently didn't enter an order for all of them. Sold 20, with 50 remaining. What I think happened is that when I was keying in all my limit orders prior to leaving for the day, I got "20" stuck in my head because that was the number of RDRT calls I had and was trying to sell and entered that amount both for RDQGA and TUDGA. In any event, it would appear that I sold 20 of them for a little more than twice what all 70 of them cost me, so the remaining 50 will likely be sold next week. Free money is free money.
I'll use some of my spare time this weekend and early next week to go through the 10K more closely and decide whether to keep trading it, accumulate some more long-term shares, or sell it all and short it. At this point, it's hard to tell which is the more attractive option. I'd kinda like to be short it going into X-Box release, but am not comfortable at this point being short going into an earnings report that'll have 3 months of sales for GBA games, which some pundits are saying will be the best-selling gaming platform of all time.
If it can do any significant price appreciation in the next 3 months, perhaps both calls and puts would be most appropriate going into next earnings. I like doing that on volatile stocks that I expect will move one way or the other but will move significantly in whichever direction they choose. Kinda like betting that a tossed coin won't land on its edge. |
