Follow the Money
Like "Deep Throat" of Watergate infamy, I think the answer to "when will things turn around" lies not by looking at AMCC/PMCS, etc, but by those companies who will be writing the check for telecom products...expecially for the "metro" loop we're all hearing about.
Now that the ILECs (Incumbent Local Exchange Carriers) have squashed the CLECs (Competitive Local Exchange Carriers) like a bug, they are free to roll out services exactly at the pace they see fit. Like any prudent business, they're not going to provision an area for broadband services until they can turn a profit from it.
Follow the money. Now that there seems to be a state of overcapacity in the backbone, the money starts with the ILECs. It'll come, but, like everything the BellHeads do, it'll come with agonizing slowness.
The really unfortunate part of all this is that there are many so-called "killer apps" that cannot come online until the broadband pipes into homes are built, and they're going to die on the vine until that time.
For anyone not believing my comment about "the money" not being in the backbone, I invite you to show me what LD carriers or backbone providers are reporting the record revenues, profits, and increasing margins that would make additional investment a prudent business choice.
Sorry for the negativity, but things really do suck out there.
:-((
Steve |
