Hi Keith,
Re: Short Interest - Would you happen to have any fresher data than that provided by Viwes? The short interest as of May 1 isn't terribly helpful in determining what's likely to occur over the next few weeks. TIA for any data. :)
Using a similar format to the one you provided, here's short interest vis a vis price and price change, month over month:
Date__Short Int___Avg Daily Vol_Ratio Price %MoM
05/01_14,030,565___13,535,106___1.04 $33.26 -20%
04/01_14,001,010___11,679,751___1.20 41.56 +43%
03/01_14,455,688___16,618,892___0.87 28.90 -41%
02/01_11,370,542___15,516,817___0.73 49.25 -55%
01/01__7,888,874___13,227,721___0.60 109.94 +30%
12/00__8,169,791___13,750,816___0.59 84.00 -14%
11/00__3,223,483____8,773,088___0.37 97.50 -56%
10/00__4,372,963____4,572,591___0.96 222.38 -08%
09/00__3,531,881____4,776,213___0.74 243.75 -03%
08/00__3,902,577____4,533,929___0.86 250.00 +11%
07/00__5,643,646____7,734,983___0.73 224.25 +03%
06/00__3,833,610____4,718,266___0.81 218.94 n/a
[[Note: ** %MoM= percent price change from level one month previous. ]]
What conclusions can we draw?
First of all, the greatest short interest corresponded to the lowest price in the series, occurring on March 1. Subsequently, short sellers got squeezed pretty hard. Typical trend following, leading to a bad result.
Second, Mr. Market seemed to be in denial last fall, as prices plummeted about 60%. Yet, short sellers didn't enter the market in earnest until most of this damage was done. Again, seemingly the result of a late entry into the trades.
Conclusions? Not really anything terribly useable for tomorrow's trading, but it sure seems that the members of the Professional Rodeo Cowboys Association are having an easier ride this year than BRCM players. Long or short. <w>
Yippieiokiay, Ray :) |
