Hi Maurice, << PS: I just read your previous post and I think we agree. So, you might as well ignore this post...oops, too late...>>
Either this post ...
Message 16018570
or this one ...
Message 16020925
Because they both work.
Ok, I have stopped laughing, as my vocal cord is no longer functioning, even as my body is still rolling on the floor;0)
Maurice sees Jay’s name heading a post and goes into Defcon Threat Delta attack mode. Slow up, or speed down:0)
<<<Who is this clever man? and why do folks not listen to him?>
Because he's wrong.>>
The Maestro is wrong, or was wrong, then right, or then wrong? Ok, I think I know what you meant. But, slow down, else you may lose a rib to the BBQ.
<<<In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. >
Yes there is. Buy productive assets and especially techstocks.>>
I agree with you about “yes there is” but not so much, at least not at this juncture, about tech stocks. Real estate, by and by, bit later, perhaps, even though I do think tech is wonderful to use, exploit, and trade.
<<Jay, here is why you are going to be ripped off holding cash>>
The ripping is slow, but the crashing of other assets will be fast, giving plenty of time to change tact.
<<This means, to keep prices constant, Alan Green$pan can print a whole lot more of his greenbacks without causing inflation>>
Aside from financial asset inflation before, maybe, unless accidents happen, which they often tend to do when the patient is weak.
<<But as the number of dollars expands, the value of assets such as land, buildings, gold, intellectual property, production lines goes up [because there are only so many of them at any one time].>>
I agree, absolutely, taking the long view, even though irrational twitches may occur in the short adjustment period, and so, counting on the short term irrationality of gold, and later, the long term rationality of any number of assets, when the arena is piled high with inanimate organic flesh of bulls.
<<So the net result is that shares go up a lot>>
Not before it falls more.
<<Gold goes up a little [or down]>>
That is what I want gold for, to keep me even while I am timing the beat of the music.
<<Now, as we all know, shares don't just go straight up. There are glitches, dramas, panics and outright terrors on the way>>
You read my script!
<<People do have mutually reinforcing emotional states [causing booms and busts]>>
I agree and am counting on it for my very selfish ends on an island some where nice.
<<So, I think you are going to sit on your cash and watch the bottom of the markets come in>>
Yes.
<<Productivity will continue to increase. Shares will start to go up again as profits start increasing again as people realize the end of the world is, once again, not nigh and they go shopping for some more retail therapy.>>
Yes.
<<Shares will go up quickly!>>
No.
<<Gold will not>>
Do not know. Doesn’t matter.
<<Cash will not>>
No.
<<Money is for buying and selling>>
Yes.
<<Gold is for Aztecs>>
Yes. And if the Aztec king in question traveled to SI via time machine, his store of value would be accepted, even if he cannot qualify for a green Amex card.
<<It's a really dumb form of money>>
I do not want my money to be smart. I want it to sit there, and keep its power.
<<We can't send it through cyberspace for a start>>
Try …
www.e-gold.com
<<They have to dig it up [which is hard work], then they bury it again in vaults. Duh! Talk about digging holes and filling them up again. Sure, that's considered economic activity, but it's useless.>>
It is used for what it is used.
<<Shares are the new store of value. Cyberdough will be the new currency>>
In the aggregate, bad track record, and does not travel well across time via time machine.
<<Fort Knox with pallets of gold bars and Uncle Scrooge with his money bin are anachronisms>>
Yes, anachronistic, dependable, trusted, from the beginning of time to the end of time, for all 6 billion of the creatures you had mentioned, all their ancestors, and all their offspring.
<<QUALCOMM and other such companies are the new store of value, which just happen to also make a profit>>
QCOM may not survive the next iteration of competition in its ‘space’.
<<Feel free to barbecue as necessary because if I'm wrong, I'd like to know about it so I too can head for the hills>>
You are right, mostly, but the timing can use some adjustment. I have no specific objection to QCOM equity choice, other than “all loaded ships may be raided, or may sink, during the coming confusion”.
<<The central issue now is to guess the bottom>>
Correct. And the bottom is not now, nor before.
<<There has not been a rapid domino-type credit collapse [which I have worried about and pondered for 5 years - yes, I have been trying to figure out what would happen with the inevitable crunch-up to teach people a lesson on borrowing for that long; much longer than the Johny-come-latelies in this thread who only noticed the issue after the Nasdaq had started falling from 5000]. There was no Y2K mess. There seems little to worry about other than the steadying needed after a multitrillion market cap contraction and collapsing wealth effect. The steadying process is well under way.>>
And so we are at least 5 years closer to the bottom:0)
<<Once that lesson [excess borrowing] is learned, the chastened markets will rise, sure as the sun, with ever-diluting money printing driving them gently ever higher>>
Yes. And so you agree with me that the learning is still ahead of us, because the students are still confident, borrowing and spending.
Chugs, Jay |
