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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: Paul Shread who wrote (10791)7/2/2001 7:40:16 AM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (1) of 52237
 
Paul,

>>>> Puetz crash cycle will be at its peak July 5-9. <<<<

From what I read, it appears that the probability is high IF there is a crash senerio that it would occur during this time-frame. I mention it since some and maybe many may interpret that the Puetz crash cycle predicts crashes, which is different.

The probability of predicting crashes is very low, and one of the most difficult types of predictions. It was mentioned that the Puetz cycle occurs once or twice a year. OK, so lets say that over the last 30 years the PUETZ CYCLE occured 45 times(1.5 x 30). How many strong selloffs which would qualify for a crash occurred in the last 30 years.

My point is not to take away from Puetz's crash cycle, but to explain the difference between predicting a crash and what the PUETZ crash cycle means - which is IF a crash occurs it has a high probability of occuring in this timeframe. They are 2 different environments.

If I had to guess the probability of calling a crash is maybe around 10%. Thats not to say no one will get it right for the next crash, but to correctly access probability, how well can one predict a crash based on a minimum of 30 crashes to be statistically viable - and that means if they was not able to predict a crash, that would one wrong call.

I mention it since it appears that some and even many attributes a high probability to someone who made ONE great call - thats NOT PROBABILITY - THATS EMOTION!.
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