What's Buggi mean about partial ASP?
He added this shortly after his first post this morning:
"My ASP opinion for this quarter 2
I have forgotten a few things ...
To my previous post I only wanted to mention, that the
Athlon and the Duron ASP numbers are "only" weekly
numbers - you can't see the number's as a standalone.
I collect all weekly numbers and then I will make one
average index, that is higher than the lowest number
at the end of the quarter.
The weekly numbers give "only" the short-term direction
and especially this development is very negative. :-(
Furthermore I want to try to forecast the development
for Q3 and I think, that this will be a very difficult
task for AMD.
When you look at the last weekly ASP numbers, you can
see weakness all over the Athlon and the Duron. Prices
went down sharply, but the pieces from the higher parts
didn't go up so fast, that this development could stop.
A bad scenario!
In my blended (50/50) ASP Desktop measurement you can
see, that the ASP falled from 103$ in the first week
of this quarter to 71$ at the last week of the quarter,
with an average number of 88,6$.
Here is the problem for Q3! - all the time from Q3 we
have to go through with bad Desktop ASP numbers and I
guess they will be very bad.
A quarter ago I didn't see this development, but when
the economy didn't start to accellerate, then the price-
pressure will go on and we will see Desktop ASP numbers
under 70$!!!, when I go for 50% Duron and 50% Athlon.
What can the A4 and the new Mobil-Line do for us?
It is very difficult to predict, but I don't see big
big upside trends here, that the Q2 number will be reached.
It will not go!
Want can the mobiles do for us? - I think, that the
notebooknumbers with AMD CPU's will go up, but how much?
100.000, 200.000, 300.000 ...??? compare to Q2.
How many MP CPU's will be on the sale?
In my "ASP Simulation" part of my sheets, I have tried
some things - here is a scenario for Q3:
ALL CPU's = 8Mio.
Mobile+MP = 0,8Mio. = 10%
Mobile+MP-ASP is 70% higher than DesktopASP
-< for this quarter it would give a boost from around
6,5$ over the desktop-ASP for the blended ASP.
Furthermore I could make a very optimistic scenario for Q3:
ALL CPU's = 8Mio.
Mobile+MP = 1,0Mio. = 12,5%
Mobile+MP-ASP is 100% higher than DesktopASP
-< for this quarter it would give a boost from around
11,5$ over the desktop-ASP for the blended ASP.
Here you can see, that the Mobile und the MP-Parts could
max. give a 10$ boost to our Desktop-ASP's and when
this part goes to 70$ everybody could see the downward
pressure for Q3.
It sounds a little bit bearish, but Q3 will be a very
challeging quarter. The ASP will definitly go down and
not 1 or 2 bucks - it will be 5-10$ I think - and when
the overall CPU pieces goes not up in a big way, I can
now see the earnings problems for the future.
Not nice.
BUGGI"
ragingbull.lycos.com |
